We have a full 15 game MLB slate on a Monday for our home run picks. There is a heat wave making its way across the country, giving us fantastic hitting conditions in a lot of parks.
Below, we explain our favorite MLB home run bets for Monday, July 28th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Monday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Randy Arozarena | +315 on Fanatics |
| Tyler Soderstrom | +475 on bet365 |
| Michael Harris II | +800 on DraftKings |
Arozarena Goes Yard at Sutter Health Park
As has been the case for most of the year, this home game for the Athletics is one of the best home run venues of the slate today. The temperature will be in the 90s when the game starts and will be in the 80s for most of the game, with 11-14 mph winds blowing out to left field. So, combining that with a stadium that is already a positive home run stadium, this game overall has a +30% home run index when considering the weather and park factors.
Arozarena has also been red-hot at the plate for over a month now, which has continued post All-Star break as well. Since 6/1 he is tied with the sixth-most HardHits in the MLB with 74, and since the ASB he has 13 HardHits and four barrels.
J.P. Sears is the starting pitcher for the Athletics, who is the type of pitcher who can get hit up and allow a bunch of home runs. Of all pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings, he leads the entire MLB in HR/9 (1.86). He is even worse at home, allowing a HR/9 of 2.70 at home, which makes sense considering his home stadium is one of the best hitting venues in the MLB.
Lastly, Sears is a left-hander, and Arozarena has better numbers across the board against lefties. Make this wager with any of the MLB betting promos on the Fanatics app. It released daily profit boosts for MLB.
Soderstrom Joins Arozarena with Homer
With park factors as good as what we have at Sutter Health Park tonight, it makes sense to double-up and go with a batter in the same game, this time taking the Athletics slugger Soderstrom. Obviously, he enjoys the same benefits as playing at this stadium as Arozarena does, with the slight difference the wind blowing out to left field will help a righty more than a lefty like Soderstrom.
Soderstrom started off the year on fire and was one of the best home run hitters to begin the season, but really cooled off as the season went on. That said, he has been hitting well in the 10 or so says since the ASB. In this stretch, he has 15 HardHits and five barrels, which are healthy numbers.
The biggest issue for Soderstrom over that cold spell was he was incapable of putting the ball in the air, meaning he had a high ground-ball rate. In these 10 days, he has a solid fly-ball rate of 51.9% and a low ground-ball rate of 25.9%.
Luis Castillo is the Mariners starter tonight, who is not among the worst home run pitchers in baseball but can get hit up. On the year, he has allowed a run home run every 35 at-bats to lefties, which is a respectable number. With that said, the two pitches for him that get hit the hardest are his 4-seam fastball and slider, two pitchers that Soderstrom has hit well all year. He is also going yard tonight, along with Arozarena.
Harris II Sends One Deep in Kansas City
To get the negative out of the way first, this game is being played in a pitcher-friendly stadium at Kauffman Stadium due to the massive outfields. So, any home run hit in Kansas City needs to be crushed. The good news, however, is that Harris II has been crushing the baseball, so that should not be an issue. He hit a home run both on Friday and Saturday, and both of those would have also been home runs in this stadium.
Over the last week, Harris II has six barrels and 15 HardHits. He is one of only four batters with six or more barrels, and one of only five batters with 15 or more HardHits in this span. While he did not hit a home run yesterday, he still had a great day at the plate and went yard in back-to-back days on 7/25 and 7/26. Yesterday he had two flyouts that were both over 100 mph exit velocity, and both traveled 380+ feet.
He will be facing Rich Hill as the starter for the Royals, who has only pitched five innings this year, but the previous couple seasons had not been good at keeping the ball in the yard. He is more-so out there as an innings eater for the Royals as they look to protect their bullpen. Look for Harris II to clear a fence at the nice price of +800.