We are back to a full, 15-game MLB slate on Friday as new series begin. And with a heat wave making its way across the east coast, there are fantastic hitting weather conditions for our home run picks.
Two of our three home run picks came through yesterday, giving ourselves a nice run the last couple days. Below, we explain out favorite HR prop bets for July 25th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Friday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +275 on DraftKings |
| Bryce Harper | +275 on Fanatics |
| Addison Barger | +500 on bet365 |
There are MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings, Fanatics and bet365 available for these home run bets. Try using the Big Fly Friday Home Run No Sweat offer on DraftKings.
Chisholm Jr. Crushes One in Fantastic Hitting Conditions
The game at Yankees Stadium tonight is one of the better parks in terms of park factors and weather conditions you'll see over the course of an MLB season.
Yankee Stadium in general is already a good park for left-handed hitters due to the short right field porch, but, for today specifically, the temperature is going to be in the 90s for most of the game, with double-digit winds blowing out to right field. So, any lefty with some power who pulls one in the air is going to be a great look for a home run, which brings us to Jazz Chisholm Jr.
He was red hot leading up to the All-Star break, and despite having a poor showing in the home run derby has continued to hit well post the break. In the past week since the return, he leads the Yankees with 12 HardHits, adding two barrels as well. His fly-ball rate of 41% and, more importantly, his pull-rate of 61% really helps considering the conditions mentioned above.
Not only all that, but the pitching matchup is fantastic for Yankees hitters today, with Taijuan Walker on the mound for the Phillies. Walker himself is more than capable of allowing a couple home runs, but he also does not go deep into games and the Phillies bullpen is a complete mess. So, Chisholm Jr. is going to have chances to go yard up and down this Phillies pitching roster today, on top of the fantastic hitting conditions.
Harper Also Goes Deep in the Bronx
With the stadium & weather factors as good as they are in this game, it makes sense to double-up on left-handed hitters. After a tough stretch returning from a wrist injury for Harper, he has been fantastic over his last 10 games.
In this stretch, he has hit five home runs with nine doubles, slashing a .400 average, 1.467 OPS and 1.000 slugging. His statcast numbers are also very good, with 10 barrels (33%-barrel rate) and 20 HardHits (66.7% HardHit rate).
He has truly been magnificent recently, and he similarly has a good pitching matchup against the Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren.
Warren is not a horrible pitcher overall, but he does struggle against lefties. He has allowed 11 home runs on the year, nine of which have been hit by LHH. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a home run every 15.25 at-bats to lefties, with a very bad barrel rate of 13.11%.
He throws the 4-seam fastball over 50% of the time to lefties, and Bryce has a 16.98%-barrel rate, 55.26% HardHit rate and 47.37% fly-ball rate against 4-seamers from RHP this season. He and Chisholm Jr. are both hitting one tonight.
Trust Barger to Go Yard in Detroit
The Tigers home stadium itself is not a hitter-friendly park, but this is another situation where we are getting solid home run hitting weather in Detroit. For context, this game has a +13% home run index specifically looking at the weather, which is due to the high humidity and slight winds blowing to right field, which will help a left-handed hitter such as Barger.
While only hitting one home run since the return of the ASB, Barger actually has the second-most HardHits in the entire MLB over the last seven days with 14. One batter is ahead of him with 15, with everybody else at 13 or fewer. He had a fantastic day at the plate yesterday, with four total HardHits. Three of them were 100+ mph exit velocity, with the fourth one hit in the air with a good launch angle and traveled 361 feet.
The Detroit pitching staff has completely melted down over the last couple weeks, and Keider Montero on the mound today does not exactly help that situation. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats to LHH, with below-average numbers across the board against lefties. Barger can clear a fence tonight.