The MLB slate on Thursday is one of the lightest we'll see over the course of the season, with only five games on tap. There is one day game, a 1:10 pm ET start between the Orioles and the Guardians that has great weather factors for home run picks.
We managed to get one on the board yesterday thanks to Ketel Marte, so we’ll look to keep the momentum as we head into the weekend. Below, we explain our favorite home run picks today, July 24th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Nick Kurtz | +285 on FanDuel |
| Spencer Torkelson | +310 on FanDuel |
| Ramon Laureano | +525 on bet365 |
There are MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 available for these HR bets.
Kurtz Sends One Deep in Houston
The young slugger for the Athletics has been a revelation this season and has continued to mash since the return over the All-Star break as well. In five games since that break, Kurtz has 11 HardHits and six barrels, hitting two home runs. Those numbers tie him with the second-most HardHits in this stretch, and he is also tied with three other batters in total barrels. The other three batters have each hit five home runs, showing that Kurtz has even gotten slightly unlucky to "only" have two home runs in this stretch.
The Astros play in a dome, so there are no weather factors involved in this game. The only real note is that Houston has a deep center field, so, unless the baseball is absolutely crushed (which Kurtz is certainly capable of doing), the best chance of going yard is to pull the baseball.
The reason the odds are so low on Kurtz at +285 is mostly due to the starting pitcher for the Astros in Jason Alexander, who is a AAA arm making a spot start. Alexander has only pitched 15 innings this season but has gotten hit up in the limited action. He has allowed a HR/9 of 1.80, and a barrel rate of 11.5%, both of which get worse against a lefty such as Kurtz. He crushes one tonight.
Torkelson Goes Yard for the Tigers
Torkelson was on our list of home run predictions yesterday, and while he did not come through it is not as though he had a horrible day at the plate. We were on him yesterday because he was facing a lefty starting pitcher, which is the case again today.
Despite not hitting a home run yesterday, he did have a barrel and the second-hardest hit of the game in terms of exit velocity. It was a double that was crushed with 106.2 mph EV, with a launch angle of 19 degrees that would have cleared a fence if it was just hit a little higher.
Torkelson has been among the best hitters in baseball this year against LHP, with the fifth-best ISO rate in the entire MLB against lefties. The four guys above him are Kyle Schwarber, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge. Pretty good company!
Eric Lauer, the Blue Jays starting pitcher tonight, is a decent pitcher overall but can still give up the long ball, allowing a home run every 25 or so at-bats both on the entire year to RHH and over the last five weeks as well. His favorite pitch to righties is the 4-seam fastball, which Torkelson absolutely crushes. On the year, he has a .419 ISO, .677 slugging and 21.1%-barrel rate against 4-seamers from LHP. He goes yard tonight.
Trust Laureano in Great Hitting Weather
As mentioned above, this day game at Progressive Field is the best game for home runs from a park factors perspective. The temperature is going to be in the 90s for most of the game, with decent humidity and double-digit winds blowing out to right field. For context, this game has a +29% home run index from a weather perspective, by far the highest of the day.
While it will admittedly be better for left-handed hitters, Laureano is still a worthy play tonight. His numbers will not quite wow you like Kurtz mentioned above, but he has a solid nine HardHits and four barrels since the return of the ASB, one of 18 batters with four or more barrels.
All four of those barrels came in the last three games, including two barrels in yesterday. So, despite not hitting a home run for the third straight game yesterday (he went back-to-back on 7/21 and 7/22), he still had a fantastic day at the plate.
Part of this recent hot streak for Laureano has involved crushing left-handed pitching, which he will be facing tonight in Logan Allen. Over the last 30 days, he has a .381 ISO rate and 11.8%-barrel rate against LHP. He'll hit one in this game.