Monday features a full 15-game slate for our home run picks. We consider players on all 30 teams when looking al MLB HR props on the leading sportsbook apps.
Below, we list our favorite home run predictions for Monday, July 21st. It includes several players for the Braves as they begin a series at home against the Giants.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Monday
| MLB Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Matt Olson | +350 on FanDuel |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +370 on Fanatics |
| Noelvi Marte | +800 on bet365 |
Olson Goes Back-to-Back
Matt Olson hit a home run yesterday, but we like him to hit another one today as the conditions are great in Atlanta. From a weather perspective, this is the second-best home run venue of the day, with a +12% weather-specific home run index. The reason for this is the double-digit winds blowing out to left field, with temperatures in the 80s throughout the entire game.
Along with the home run that Olson hit, he had another hit above 100 mph exit velocity, giving him two over 100 EV yesterday. The homer he hit was smoked, 110.7 mph exit velocity and traveled 442 feet. Clearly, a home run in all 30 stadiums.
The Giants’ starting pitcher is Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled keeping the baseball in the yard all year, especially against lefties. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17.14 at-bats, which is even worse over the last five weeks allowing a homer every 8.50 at-bats to lefties in this stretch. Olson should be able to go yard again tonight.
Acuna Jr. Joins Olson with Homer Tonight
Acuna Jr. also hit a homer yesterday, but, along with Olson, he has a great opportunity to hit one tonight as well. We mentioned the positive weather conditions, and the wind blowing out to left field that will especially help a righty bat such as Acuna Jr.
The home run Acuna Jr. hit yesterday was crushed, one-upping Olson with a 113.7 mph EV dinger that traveled an absurd 456 feet. He had a slow start coming out of the All-Star break, but seemed to break out of that yesterday, and in general Acuna Jr. has been phenomenal since returning from the knee injury earlier this year.
He also enjoys the same benefits as Olson does going up against Birdsong, who does not allow as many home runs to RHH but is still not a pitcher to fear. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a barrel rate of 11.43% and a HardHit rate of 57.69%, all with a SIERA of 4.81. He also throws the 4-seam fastball 50% of the time to righties, and on the year, Acuna Jr. has a 20.59%-barrel rate, 65% HardHit rate and 45% fly-ball rate against 4-seamers from RHP. Use the "5 Days of Dingers" offer on FanDuel for this pick and find other MLB betting bonuses on the app.
Marte Hits One at Nice Price
Marte is a young, relatively unknown hitter for the Reds, but he has been hitting very well since he returned from an oblique injury on July 4th. In 12 games in that stretch, he has a barrel rate of 15.60% and an ISO rate of .256, two numbers in the excellent threshold category according to FanGraphs.
Yesterday alone he had four HardHits, all four of which were above 100 mph exit velocity. One of them traveled 397 feet and would have been a home run if it was not hit to center field.
Jake Irvin is pitching for the Nationals, who has been rocked over the last five weeks. Against RHH, he has allowed a home run every 11.50 at-bats, with a barrel rate of 10.14% and a HardHit rate of 51.85%. Irvin throws the 4-seam fastball most of the time, which gets tattoo'd with a HardHit rate of 81.8%, ISO rate of .529 and a wOBA of .404, all with a low called-strike + whiff rate of 18.6%.
So, batters are consistently contacting his 4-seamer, and it consistently gets hit hard. On the year, Marte has a 20%-barrel rate and 38.46% fly-ball rate against the 4-seam FB from RHP, with a similar low strikeout rate of 12.50%. He hits one at a nice price of +800 tonight.