Now that the MLB All-Star break is behind us, it’s time to dive into the second half of the MLB season. We’ll continue our daily home run picks, looking to find the sluggers who will go yard.
Below, we analyze our favorite home run predictions for Friday. Sign up on bet365 and FanDuel to find MLB betting bonuses for a busy weekend.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Friday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Spencer Torkelson | +375 on bet365 |
| James Wood | +500 on bet365 |
| Jackson Merrill | +520 on FanDuel |
Torkelson Sends One Deep in Texas
One of the issues when betting on the MLB after a long break like this is we do not have any recent form to go from, and it is hard to know how guys are going to look with five days off. That said, Torkelson had been hitting the ball very well prior to the break. He is one of 16 batters with seven or more barrels in the month of July, with an excellent fly-ball rate (61%) and pull-rate (51.6%) in that same stretch.
As for tonight, the biggest advantage for Torkelson is he is facing off against a left-handed pitcher, and Tork is significantly better against lefties. On the year, his ISO rate is .367 against LHP, up from .213 against RHP. Looking at essentially every possible stat from average to OPS and wRC+, they are all much, much higher against lefties.
The LHP he will be facing is Patrick Corbin, who has somewhat struggled with the long ball this year. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 25.79 at-bats, with slightly below-average numbers allowed across the board.
He has allowed 14 home runs total, and all 14 of them have been hit off either his slider (four total HR allowed), sinker (six) or cutter (4). Torkelson has solid numbers against this pitch-mix from lefties, with a 14%-barrel rate, 50% HardHit rate and 46% fly-ball rate. He'll send one to the fans tonight.
Wood Goes Yard in Washington
Wood has been one of the best young hitters in all of baseball this year, and we are still able to get him at +500 odds to hit a home run in a good situation. He is tied with one batter with the seventh-best barrel rate in the MLB (18.5%) and has hit the seventh-most barrels overall, with the eighth-fastest average exit velocity.
His ISO rate is .256, which puts him above the excellent threshold for both barrel rate (15% and higher) and ISO rate (.250 and higher), making him one of 13 batters who can make that claim.
Now that we know Wood has been excellent this year, let's dive into the matchup for today specifically. For starters, this is a solid weather game for home runs, mostly due to the hot temperatures in the high 80s when this game starts. This game has a +11% home run index when considering the weather and the park factors.
Dylan Cease is pitching for the Padres, who has struggled against lefty bats all year, but especially recently. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 24.25 at-bats against LHH, which increases to every 18.33 at-bats over the last five weeks. Wood clears a fence tonight.
Merrill Picks Up Where He Left Off
Jackson Merrill had been in the midst of an epic cold spell ever since he came back from a hamstring injury back in May, but he managed to hit two home runs in his last game before the All-Star break. Not only did he hit those two home runs, but they were off one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in Zack Wheeler.
Of course, Merrill was awesome the first month of the year before he hurt his hamstring, and he was fantastic the second half of his rookie year last year, so we know what type of hitter he can be when he is on.
So, the hope here is that Merrill is able to use that strong Sunday start against Wheeler and go on a run post ASB. Both of those home runs he managed to hit off Wheeler, by the way, was off his 4-seam fastball. That is important, as the Nationals starting pitcher Michael Soroka struggles against left-handed bats, and especially his 4-seamer.
He has admittedly been good in his last four starts, but on the year, he has a HR/9 of 1.95 against LHH, allowing a home run every 18.38 at-bats. Six of the eight home runs he has allowed to lefties have been hit off his 4-seam FB, which he throws roughly 50% of the time to LHH as well. When Merrill is on, he hits fastballs well.