It's Friday in MLB, which means all 30 teams are in action. There are plenty of options for our home run picks today. We consider the weather, pitching matchups and other factors in the following HR predictions.
We need a solid weekend after not getting any of our three home run predictions correct yesterday. Let's rebound with these MLB home run picks on Friday, June 27th.
Best Home Run Picks for Friday
There are MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365, which are great for making these home run wagers.
Olson Goes Yard in Rivalry Game
The Braves take on the Phillies today in Atlanta, which makes this a fun rivalry game. The odds are definitely short for a home run, but for good reason when looking into it. This is a good home run situation from a weather perspective, with temperatures in the high 80s, and the short right field at Truist Park will help a left-handed hitter such as Olson.
Olson has been unlucky in the home run department for a lot of the season, which includes over the last 7 days as well. He has 11 HardHits in this stretch, tied for the most on the Braves, with a respectable fly-ball rate and pull-rate both above 40%, yet with no home runs to show for it. Over the last two weeks, he has 17 HardHits and four barrels, with only one home run to show for it. That all changes today against the Phillies.
Mick Abel is the starting pitcher for Philly, and, after a great start, has gotten shelled in two of his last three starts. He gave up four home runs to the Mets last start, and three home runs to the Cubs two starts prior to that.
Six of those home runs have come by left-handed hitters, with lefty splits against Abel horrible across the board with a HR/9 of 4.15, ISO rate of 0.385, barrel rate of 11.54%, HardHit rate of 51.22% and a fly-ball + line-drive rate of over 70%.
Burleson Homers in Cleveland
Burleson might not seem like the type of hitter who should have odds at +340, but it makes sense when you look into the factors in his favor.
For starters, he is red hot at the plate, which is a good place to start. He leads MLB in total HardHits over the last 14 days with 28 and is one of only seven batters with eight or more barrels in this stretch as well. He also has a solid fly-ball rate of 48.1% and pull-rate of 44.2%, with both numbers being above 40% as a great sign for us.
From there, the starting pitcher for the Guardians is Luis L. Ortiz, who is another pitcher that struggles against LHH. Not quite as bad as Mick Abel, but he has allowed a home run every 19.50 at-bats to lefties on the year, with below-average numbers across the board against LHH on top of that.
Lastly, this is one of the best weather games of the day for home runs, with double-digit winds blowing out of the stadium, which is important since Progressive Field is receptive to wind, and the temperatures today are in the mid to high 80s. All this should help with carry, which is great for a batter hitting the ball as well as Burleson.
Adames With a Dinger Tonight
Our third and final home run play of the day is backing another batter swinging a hot bat in a great weather environment for home runs. This time, in Chicago there are double-digit winds blowing out to left field, with low barometric pressure and somewhat hot temperatures in the low 80s. The wind will especially help a right-handed hitter such as Adames.
Adames leads the Giants with 18 HardHits over the last 14 days, with both a fly-ball and pull-rate both at 50%. Over the last week he has a solid 10 HardHits, so he has consistently been able to hit the ball well recently with a good average exit velocity of 98 mph EV in these last seven days.
Aaron Civale is on the mound for the White Sox, who is not quite as bad as the previous two pitchers mentioned, but nobody to fear either. He has allowed a home run every 19 at-bats on the year, with his biggest issue being allowing batters to put the ball in the air, with the average launch angle allowed at 20.8 degrees and a fly-ball rate allowed above 50%.
That is a death sentence in a home run positive situation such as this one, so here's hoping Adames clears a fence tonight.