Home Run Derby Picks: Predictions, Odds for the 2025 Derby - Cruz Hitting the Longest of the Night

Eight of the best sluggers in MLB take center stage on Monday, July 14th. We look at the best Home Run Derby picks and odds for the event at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Get in your bets before action begins at 8 pm ET.

The odds are slightly different on each sportsbook. In addition, there are different bonuses on FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 for your Home Run Derby picks.

MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Odds

It comes as no surprise to see Raleigh as the betting favorite to win the derby. He currently leads the MLB in total home runs with 36 and has fantastic numbers across the board. That said, he is someone that we are fading for this event, especially at those odds.

For starters, no catcher has ever won the derby before. That does make some sense as the derby ends up being a test of endurance, and catchers with bigger frames can tire more easily.

It is also a little bit of an unknown with Raleigh being a switch-hitter, and he has confirmed that he will be batting from both sides during the event. This adds some uncertainty, as it is possible he might not be able to get into as good of a rhythm hitting from both sides.

The other two rounding out the top three in terms of betting favorites are two power-hitting lefties, but they are another two batters that we are fading at those odds in Cruz and Wood.

Both have hulking frames well over six foot, which helps them hit the baseball incredibly far but might make it difficult in a competition such as this as they both have long, powerful swings. Again, this is an endurance event, and their violent swings will help them with distance, but less-so being able to consistently hit home runs.

Each struggle with a low fly-ball rate and launch angle, and an important part of this event is being able to put the ball in the air.

One thing not mentioned yet are the park factors, which theoretically should help left-handed hitters, but Wood is not the type of hitter to take advantage of this. Truist Park is shorter from an outfield perspective at right field, which helps left-handed pull hitters more than right-handed pull hitters. 

That said, one issue with Wood specifically is his low pull-rate of 29.2%, which is in 199th in the MLB. His pull-air rate (which is a fly-ball that is pulled) is below 10%, far under the league average of 16%.

We'll have some plays that we like backing Wood and Cruz, but we’re not taking either to win the event. So, if we do not like any of the top three, that means we are in longshot territory, which brings us to our favorite of two longshot predictions tonight.

Taking Rooker Provides Bettors with Value at +1000

The best value on the board is Rooker at +1000 at either FanDuel or bet365. While Rooker’s numbers across the board are not as good as other batters in this event, the biggest advantage for him is that he is a DH, so he is used to sitting around waiting to take the plate. He knows what to do to stay warm and ready to bat, while every other batter participating is used to playing the field between plate appearances.

So, during the derby you will see a lot of hitters trying to stay loose, which will not be an issue for Rooker who already has this routine down.

It is hard to put real numbers on how much that will impact things, but it is something unique to Rooker. Rooker also has a smooth, compact swing that profiles well in an event such as this, unlike described earlier from the tall Wood and Cruz.

Another thing that we liked about Rooker is that, despite playing in a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento, he has more home runs away (12) than he does at home (8), despite having slightly fewer plate appearances on the road. So, it is not as though he has taken advantage of a hitter’s park or anything like that.

Lastly, Rooker has his longtime personal hitting coach pitching to him today, so it is somebody that he is used to taking batting practice from. He is worth a sprinkle at +1000!

Look at Buxton for Another Long Shot Home Run Derby Pick

Another right-handed batter that is worth a sprinkle is Buxton, who is also a good longshot price at +950 odds at DraftKings as the best offered price. There was initially some concern with Buxton missing time recently due to being hit by a pitch on his hand, but he has since returned to action and swung well, so those concerns seem to be alleviated.

This is another factor that is hard to quantify, but Buxton is from Georgia and could possibly be playing in front of local friends and family. This is not his home stadium of course (it is Olson’s), but it could still bring a little extra pop playing close to home for Buxton.

The real reason that he is worth playing, however, is he has among the best numbers across the board when considering a bunch of different categories. He has a barrel rate above 15%, which puts him in the excellent category according to FanGraphs, with a pull-rate of 53.1% (6th-best in the MLB) a fly-ball rate above 45% and bat-speed in the 90th percentile of all qualified batters in the MLB.

So, unlike most participants, Buxton checks nearly every box one could look for when profiling hitters for the Home Run Derby. Only Cal Raleigh matches Buxton in these metrics, and we've already discussed why Raleigh is not among our favorites.

Oneil Cruz Longest Home Run (+185) FanDuel

This is probably our favorite play on the board. Cruz is the favorite for this category, so it’s not a longshot play.

While we do not like his profile to consistently hit enough home runs to advance during the derby itself, he is the most likely hitter to send a baseball to space when he does make contact. His numbers are absurd when you dive into it.

He has the second-best barrel rate in the MLB and leads the MLB in exit velocity. Both numbers are admittedly due to his high strikeout rate, but that is something that shouldn't be a concern for this event. Overall, he is in the 100th percentile in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and HardHit rate. He has the hardest hit of the Statcast ERA, when he hit a baseball 122.9 mph off the bat, a truly remarkable number.

So, look for Cruz to send one 480+ feet and hopefully cash out this market for us. Wood is a solid runner-up in this category for similar logic at +300, but not quite as good of a look as Cruz.