Yesterday we managed to sweep the slate, hitting all three of our home run picks. It was a great day, and hopefully we can continue that success into the rest of the week.
It is full MLB betting slate of 15 games, and it is also Dinger Tuesday, which is always fun. Below, we go over our best MLB home run predictions for today, June 24th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday
Make these MLB HR picks using a variety of bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel.
| MLB Home Run Pick | Odds | Game | Time |
| Byron Buxon | +350 via bet365 | Mariners vs. Twins | 7:40 pm ET |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +400 via FanDuel | Blue Jays vs. Guardians | 6:40 pm ET |
| Jackson Merrill | +420 via FanDuel | Nationals vs. Padres | 9:40 pm ET |
Buxton Stays Hot, Homers Tonight
Over the last seven and 14 days, Buxton has been among the best hitters in baseball. Over the last seven days, he is one of 10 betters with 13 or more HardHits, and one of only five batters with six or more barrels. If you go back to the last two weeks, it still looks good for Buxton, as he is one of five batters with eight or more barrels, along with 21 HardHits.
He has also hit seven home runs in this stretch, so the hot hitting has translated to home runs, which hopefully continues tonight. He has among the best matchups from a pitcher perspective to hit a home run tonight, with Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners.
Castillo is one of only two starting pitchers on the mound today who has allowed a home run under every 20 at-bats over the last five weeks. In this stretch, he has allowed a home run every 15.71 at-bats, with bad numbers across the board with a 10%-barrel rate and 47% HardHit rate allowed.
While the Twins home stadium, Target Field, is not known to be a hitters park, that has not impacted Buxton this year. He has hit more home runs at home than away, while having fewer at-bats at home as well. For reference, his ISO rate at home is .346, up from .234 away.
Guerrero Goes Yard in Cleveland
As mentioned earlier, there are only two starting pitchers today who have allowed a home run more frequently than every 20 at-bats in the last five weeks. Luis Castillo is one, as detailed earlier, while the other one is the Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, who has allowed a home run every 19.40 at-bats in this stretch. Not quite as bad as Castillo, but still bad.
This is also one of the better home run venues of the day from a weather perspective, with slight winds blowing out of the stadium and the temperatures in the mid 80s, both of which will help with carry on any ball hit in the air.
Guerrero Jr, meanwhile, hits lefties hard, and Allen is a left-handed pitcher. On the year, he has a higher ISO rate against LHP (.213) than he does against RHP (.149), and he leads the Blue Jays with a 21.6%-barrel rate against LHP on the season. The two biggest home run pitches for Allen are the 4-seam fastball and sweeper, which Guerrero Jr. has great numbers against.
Facing those two pitches from LHP on the season, 'Vlad has a 13.54%-barrel rate, 59.15% HardHit rate and a 31% fly-ball rate.
Merrill Sends One Deep at Petco
Merrill started off the season on fire but has had a pronounced cold spell that has included two different injury stints. That said, it seems as though he is coming out of that dry spell if his last two days at the plate are any indication. He did not hit a home run in either of those games, but he had four HardHits in each of them, five of which were 100+ mph exit velocity. He had one flyout that would have been a home run in 16/30 stadiums, and another double that traveled over 370-feet.
Eight HardHits in a two-game span is impressive, and Merrill has a decent matchup tonight against the Nationals starting pitcher Trevor Williams. He has admittedly been better recently, but Williams can get hit up by left-handed hitters such as Merrill.
On the year, he has allowed seven home runs to LHH, and a home run every 23.71 at-bats. Against RHH, meanwhile, Williams has only allowed one home run. Look for Merrill to go back to his home run hitting ways today.