We have a busy MLB slate today as games get made up from rain outs. There are 18 (and a half) games to consider when making our picks.
There are double-headers between the Padres/Phillies, Tigers/Nationals and Brewers/Mets, with the Reds and Red Sox finishing their game from yesterday, which is where we get the half game from. Below, we discuss our best MLB bets today, July 2nd.
Wednesday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Make these MLB betting picks with bonuses on BetMGM and Fanatics.
- Hunter Brown o6.5 Strikeouts (-120) BetMGM
- Tigers Team Total o4.5 (-130) Fanatics
- Cubs 1st Half -0.5 (-110) BetMGM
Brown Mows Down Rockies Tonight
It is always scary taking a pitching prop at Coors Field, but we are also getting a discount because of that on this strikeout prop for Hunter Brown. For context, this is a number that Brown has hit in 11 of 16 games on the season, seven of his last 10 games, and in three out of his last four. So, throughout the entire year he has consistently gone over this number.
To go further than that, Brown has elite strikeout numbers across the board. He has the 7th-best K/9 in the MLB (10.84) and the third-best strikeout rate (32.1%). The Rockies, meanwhile, strike out a ton. They legitimately have the highest strikeout rate in the entire MLB against RHP, and the worst wRC+ against RHP as well.
That is a tough combination on the Rockies side, which also means they are the best matchup in the MLB for strikeout props against right-handed pitchers.
Expect Tigers to Score in Washington
As mentioned earlier, there is a doubleheader between the Tigers and Nationals, and this play is for game 1 of that doubleheader. The Tigers bats against the Nationals starting pitcher Trevor Williams was a matchup that we liked yesterday, so it only makes sense to go right back to it today.
Williams is a righty for the Nats who really struggles against left-handed hitters. On the year, he allows lefties to bat .375 off of him, with a 4.85 SIERA, 5.28 FIP and 5.24 xFIP. Even with Kerry Carpenter out for the Tigers, they still have a bunch of lefties they can throw at Williams, highlighted by Riley Greene.
In general, the Tigers are a top 10 lineup against RHP, and they have only gotten better as the year has gone on. They have the 10th-best wRC+ against RHP on the year, the eighth best since May 1st, and the fourth best since June 1st. They should be able to put up runs against Williams.
Cubs Dominate Guardians at Wrigley Field
This is a situation where we want to single out the starting pitching advantage for the Cubs, and roll with the first half market. Essentially, we are predicting that the Cubs will be winning after five innings. The Cubs have the third-best lineup in the MLB when it comes to wRC+, and they have an excellent matchup tonight both in terms of their starting pitcher (Shota Imanaga) against the Guardians, and the Guardians starting pitcher (Tanner Bibee) against the Cubs bats.
Sticking with the Cubs hitters, the biggest thing here is Bibee struggles immensely when he is not pitching in the comforts of his home stadium. His ERA goes from 2.57 at home up to 4.96 away, with all numbers across the board significantly worse when he is not pitching in Cleveland from average, slugging, wOBA to FIP and xFIP. So, the expectation here is that the Cubs can put some runs on the board.
On the other side of the mound, Shota Imanaga is pitching for the Cubs, and the Guardians are incapable of hitting lefties. They have the fourth-worst wRC+ against LHP on the year, and the third worst since June 1st. With Imanaga only projected to throw around 80 pitches, it makes sense to isolate the first 5 innings here.