After a lighter day yesterday, we are back to a full MLB slate on Tuesday with all 30 teams taking part in today's MLB action. There is a ton to dive into, as it should be a great day of baseball.
With that in mind, please check out our best MLB bets today, July 1st.
Tuesday's Best MLB Bets & Predictions
Use the MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365
Yankees Get the W in Toronto
This is the first game on the slate today, with first pitch scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET. The next games do not start until a couple hours after that, so this will be the only game on for us to enjoy.
There are two big advantages the Yankees have in this one, which is why this is worth a play even at the -155 odds. The first is the starting pitching matchup with Max Fried on the mound for the Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman.
Fried has been phenomenal basically the entire season, with 15 of his 17 starts allowing two or fewer earned runs. He had one start where he allowed three in six innings to the Orioles, and really only got shelled once, back in May against the Dodgers. Other than that, he has been lights out. He has the second-best ERA in the MLB (1.92), 10th-best FIP, 12th-best xFIP and the 12th-best SIERA. So, even though he might be slightly lucky to have that low of an ERA, he has still been fantastic all year.
Gausman, meanwhile, has gotten lit up by the Yankees in his last three starts, and four of his last five. He did not make it past four innings in any of those last three starts, allowing a combined 17 earned runs. After an excellent start last time out for Gausman, this also represents a perfect fade opportunity on him as well.
Lastly, the Yankees have the bullpen advantage, with having all of their top arms available tonight while the Blue Jays do not. So, even if the Yankees do not win the starting pitching matchup tonight, they should be able to get it done on the back end.
Back the Twins Against Miami
The Twins are another relatively heavy favorite who we like to get the job done tonight. The Marlins are coming home after a fantastic road trip and are set up for some regression, while the Twins have an excellent pitcher in Joe Ryan on the mound. While not quite at the level of Max Fried referenced earlier, Ryan still has excellent numbers across the board with a 2.86 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.55 xFIP and 3.55 SIERA.
Ryan has impressively had success recently against really good hitting teams such as Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Houston, and now is facing a Marlins team with the ninth-worst wRC+ in the MLB.
On the other side of the mound Edward Cabrera is pitching for the Marlins, who has admittedly been good in his last five starts but he has done it against lower competition. Now, he is going up against a top 10 lineup in Minnesota, who has the 7th-best wRC+ over the last 30 days.
This is another situation where the Twins have the advantage in the bullpen, so any lead gained at the beginning of the game should be kept safe.
Expect Runs in Washington
This one is pretty simple: we are fading two starting pitchers that really struggle against left-handed hitters, who are both facing teams with lefty bats up and down the lineup.
On the Tigers side, Jack Flaherty is pitching, who has allowed a home run every 15.78 at-bats against lefties, allowing an ISO rate of .239, and a barrel rate of 9.8%. The Nationals have six lefties at the plate, three of which have a barrel rate above 10% against righties over the last month, with one just under that number in Josh Bell at 9.5%.
Then, on the other side of the mound will be Trevor Williams for the Nats, who has allowed an ISO rate of .203, barrel rate of 8.4% against LHH on the year, two numbers that have gotten worse over the last month with a .234 ISO rate and 12.5%-barrel rate allowed. The Tigers also project to have six lefties in the lineup, including two power hitters in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.
As long as it stays dry in Washington, runs should be scored tonight.