Tuesdays always offer a great MLB betting slate, as we have a full slate of games to dive into. That is the case today, with 15 full games on tap for tonight. For this article specifically, we will be diving into the best MLB home run picks for today, Tuesday June 10th.
Best Home Run Picks for Tuesday, June 10th
Make the following home run picks with bonuses on FanDuel and bet365. Each app has additional MLB betting promos, such as profit boosts.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+400)
- Tyler Stephenson (+575)
- Ketel Marte (+525)
Encarnacion-Strand to Hit a Home Run (+400) on FanDuel
Encarnacion-Strand (CES) has only played four games since coming back from injury, but he has been absolutely raking in those four games. He has a combined nine HardHits along with four barrels, which gives him a barrel rate of 50% and a HardHit rate of 75%. And he has hit three home runs in these four games as well.
While he did not go yard yesterday, he did have two HardHits, including the hardest hit of that game in terms of exit velocity when he ripped a single 109 mph EV off the bat. He just did not have the launch angle for that to clear a fence, but that is not a long-term concern as he has a fly-ball rate of 50% in these four games since coming back from injury.
He also has about as good of a pitching matchup as you could possibly ask for, going up against Slade Cecconi of the Guardians. Cecconi has only made four starts this year, but he has gotten rocked in those four starts.
He has allowed a HR/9 of 2.66 (with a home run every 13.50 at-bats), along with a barrel rate of 19.7% and a launch angle of 16.7 degrees. That is a horrible combination of allowing guys to barrel the ball up and put the ball in the air.
Stephenson to Hit a Home Run (+575) bet365
For our second MLB home run play of the day, let's stick in the same game and go with another batter on the Reds, this time in Stephenson. While Stephenson is not quite as hot at the plate as CES, he has still been hitting the ball well recently.
Stephenson admittedly does hit left-handed pitching harder than righties, this recent hot streak has included him hitting righties hard as well. Over the last month against RHP specifically, he has a 17.6% barrel rate, 58.8% HardHit rate, and has been putting the ball in the air with a fly-ball rate of 44.1%.
The biggest issue for Cecconi when facing right-handed hitters has been his 4-seam fastball. He has allowed three home runs to RHH over these four starts, and two of them have been hit off his 4-seamer, with a HardHit rate allowed of 57.1% off his 4-seam fastball to righties specifically.
Luckily, Stephenson crushes 4-seamers. On the year, he has a 20% barrel rate against 4-seam fastballs from RHP, with an absurd 73% HardHit rate and 60% fly-ball rate.
This is also a positive home run game from a weather and stadium perspective, so let's hope these guys mash one tonight between Stephenson and Encarnacion-Strand.
Marte to Hit a Home Run (+525) bet365
Our third and final home run pick of the day is going to sound familiar, backing a hot batter at the plate who is facing a pitcher who's fastball gets crushed. This time, it is Marte (switch-hitter) going up against Bryan Woo (RHP). Since Woo is a righty, Marte will be batting left-handed, which is a huge advantage in this matchup.
Woo has given up nine home runs on the year, seven of which have been hit by lefties. In his last five starts, he has allowed a total of six home runs. five of which have been hit by left-handed hitters, and four of those were off the 4-seam fastball.
Over the last 30 days, Marte has a 27.7% barrel rate against RHP, with an absurd eight home runs off righties over the last month. What he really crushes, though, is- you guessed it- the 4-seam fastball.
On the entire season, Marte has a 41.7% barrel rate against 4-seamers from righties, with a 66.7% HardHit rate and a 45.8% fly-ball rate. He has, by far, the best numbers on the Diamondbacks against 4-seamers.