Oklahoma City is one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012. The Thunder can close out the Western Conference Finals tonight in Game 5 at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
OKC leads the series 3-1 and is 43-8 at home this season. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven games.
The spread is the biggest it has been all series at 8.5 points with OKC as the favorites. I keep seeing two likely scenarios tonight: either a Thunder win by 30, or a nail-biter to the finish.
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Wolves at Thunder Game 5 Odds
The winning team is 2-2 against the spread in this series, and the last three games have all hit the over. The last two games have crushed the over.
For Game 5, the Thunder are 8.5-point favorites, with the total up to 220.5. OKC has not been a great bet in the playoffs. They are 6-9 against the spread in the playoffs, 8-7 over/under. Minnesota is 10-4 against the spread in the playoffs, 8-6 over/under.
There’s a lot of data in favor of the Thunder. OKC has led at halftime in 30 of its last 37 games. They’ve covered the spread 62 percent of the time as favorites and have hit the team over total in 29 of their last 41 games. The home team has covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last six games.
So that means a Thunder romp for NBA betting this evening, right?
Wolves at Thunder Game 5 Preview
After destroying the Thunder by 42 points in Game 3, Minnesota couldn’t keep the momentum going in Game 4. They were let down (again) by Julius Randle, who had only five points on 1-7 shooting, and starting big Rudy Gobert has not performed. He has just 27 points in the entire series.
Wolves star guard Anthony Edwards had 16 points and bristled post-game when asked about his play, saying he was making the right play by passing the ball and setting up his teammates. Uh-oh. Minnesota shot better from the floor in Game 4 than OKC, made more free throws, had more rebounds…and lost.
I think the reality is that OKC’s defense is what’s creating so many problems for the Wolves. Minnesota had 23 turnovers in Game 4. OKC is like that NFL team with a great offense. They know they can/will score, so they can gamble on defense and make plays.
Offensively, SGA runs the show for the Thunder. Jalen Williams had 34 in Game 4, and Chet Holmgren has been a revelation this series. Minnesota can’t contain him. He’s averaged 17 in this series. You have to shut down the other guys next to SGA to have a chance against the Thunder, and the Wolves haven’t done it.
Wolves at Thunder Game 5 Prediction
Like I said, I see two possible scenarios, and it all hinges on the Wolves desire. How heartbroken are they after the Game 4 loss? I was ready to take the points, but then I saw the comments by Edwards. You can interpret those in a lot of ways, but I sense a frustration that he doesn’t think his teammates are carrying the load. Today’s NBA star can be fickle, and if Edwards isn’t engaged and happy, Minnesota has no shot.
I see tonight as a big OKC rout. I don’t think it will be close.
The Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-106 at FanDuel)