Usually, Game 5s in the NBA playoffs are described as ‘pivotal’ because so much of the series hinges on the outcome. Tonight, both Game 5s can be decisive as the (checks notes) Knicks can close out the wounded Celtics, and Minnesota can take out Golden State.
Injuries have played a big part in both series now, with Jayson Tatum out for Boston with a ruptured Achilles and Steph Curry still out for Golden State with a hamstring.
Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game. Our picks have been healthy, and here’s how we are ‘pivoting’ for tonight’s Game 5s.
Knicks at Celtics Game 5 Odds
Wow. What a turn of events in this series. New York is 7-3 against the spread in the playoffs and has been an underdog in the last five games (including tonight). They’re 4-1 in those five games and straight up.
Boston has been favored in every playoff game and is 4-5 against the spread. Boston is laying 4.5 points with the total around 208 tonight. Yes, Boston will be without Tatum for a long time. This season, they went 9-2 without him.
New York has covered the spread in six of their last seven games in Boston. They have won six in a row on the road.
Knicks at Celtics Game 5 Prediction
The big question for Boston is, how do they find the offense without Tatum? I think they’ll be Ok. Kristaps Porzingis has scored 20-plus points in the last three games Tatum has missed.
But the bad news for Boston is that they can’t stop Jalen Brunson. He’s averaged 30.1 points in the playoffs. Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged just under 20. And I hate to bring it up to Boston fans, but when Tatum got hurt, the Knicks were in charge anyway.
My bet is that Boston starts hot with a lift from the home crowd, but New York relentlessly attacks and pulls away. I hate that Tatum is hurt, but it’s reality, so is the fact that the Knicks are going to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000.
The Pick: Knicks +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Warriors at Timberwolves Game 5 Odds
Minnesota is a double-digit favorite tonight to finish off Golden State. The Timberwolves are 4-0 in their last four closeout games.
Against the spread in the playoffs, Minnesota is 7-2 and 4-5 over/under. Golden State is 4-8 in the playoffs (remember they were in the Play-In Tournament) and 6-6 over/under.
Golden State has lost five in a row without Steph Curry, and has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight semifinal road games.
Warriors at Timberwolves Prediction
This one comes down to the number for me. Minnesota is going to win tonight, it’s just a matter of how much. Golden State has that look, as an experienced team, that they know they don’t have the magic this year to win the NBA title. Teams know. Coaches know. Fans are the last to know.
Minnesota star Anthony Edwards has averaged 27.3 points this series, and Julius Randle has averaged 24.3 (by the way, a Randle vs. Brunson NBA finals match-up would be wild). The Wolves are more athletic, and without Curry, Golden State can’t get any easy baskets.
But 11 points? Geez, that’s a lot, and I have thought about it plenty. I think that the sun has set on Golden State, though.
The Pick: Wolves -11 (-108 at FanDuel)