We got rained out of our Zack Wheeler wager yesterday, but cashed our plus-money fade of Clayton Kershaw to run our weekly record to 5-2. Thursday brings the smallest MLB slate of the season so far, with only five games on deck.
The weather in Philadelphia looks much better on Thursday, opening the door for a twin bill between the Braves and Phillies. Wheeler will start the second game of the doubleheader, and if we liked his strikeout prospects against Atlanta yesterday, we’ll love them today with the Braves having already tired themselves earlier in the afternoon.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for May 29
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
The best news of all is that Wheeler’s over 6.5 strikeouts prop comes with this MLB betting pick. Yesterday, the over was juiced to -134, but today it’s down to -128. Nothing’s changed from our analysis of Wheeler, as it remains pretty impressive to watch a 34-year-old continue to dominate MLB hitters.
Wheeler enters play ranked fifth in strikeouts, and has fanned 7 or more batters in nine of 11 starts so far this season, including his lone appearance against Atlanta.
The righty has dominated the Braves lineup in the past, posting a 31.2% strikeout rate over a 291 at-bat sample size. Marcell Ozuna has been his most frequent victim, whiffing 25 times, and it’s worth monitoring online sportsbooks closer to the 6:46 pm ET first pitch, to see if there are more options to fade Ozuna in the player props market.
Wheeler currently owns a career-best 11.21 K/9 rate, which coincides with a 1.3% increase in his swinging strike rate over 2024. He’s generating swings and misses at an elite 14% clip, while the velocity is up on his three major pitches this season.
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-110 at DraftKings)
For our second wager, we’re betting over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI for Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe. Over the past 15 days, Lowe’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and now he draws a very favorable matchup against the Astros and rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto.
Lowe starts the day riding an 11-game hitting streak, clearing over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in nine of those matchups. He’s pounded 4 home runs during that stretch and has crossed the plate at least once in seven straight contests.
He’s slashing .385/.418/.808 over the last two weeks, with 20 hits and 12 runs scored. Lowe also crushes right-handed pitching, which is bad news for Gusto. The 26-year-old is off to a rocky start to his big-league career, allowing 38 hits and 21 runs in 35 innings.
The last few outings have been especially rough, as he’s coughed up 13 hits, 12 runs, and 3 homers over his past 8.1 innings.
Enemy hitters are batting .300 against him over the last month, while he’s surrendering hard contact at a 45% clip. Fire up your Rays today, starting with Lowe.