Another winning day in the MLB player props market boosts our record to 4-2 this week, entering Wednesday’s 15-game slate.
Today’s menu is loaded with matinees, with a total of eight games getting underway before 5 pm ET. That means there will be baseball to sweat all afternoon, and we’ll have action right from the jump as our first wager comes from the earliest game on the board.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for May 28
Clayton Kershaw Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+124 at FanDuel)
That’s where we’ll find under 3.5 strikeouts for Clayton Kershaw at juicy +124 odds in our first MLB betting selection. If you want to take a more conservative route, you could bet under 4.5 K’s for Kershaw at -175 odds, but why lay that kind of juice when Kershaw has shown zero ceiling in his first two starts back from injury.
In fact, Kershaw has surrendered more walks (4) than he’s recorded strikeouts (3) over his first 6 innings of work. He’s yet to go longer than 4 innings in a start, and last time out, he faced only seven batters. Now granted, a weather delay was the reason his night was cut short, but there’s nothing about his performance from either start that suggests he’s anywhere close to top form.
Kershaw’s average fastball velocity is down to 88.9 miles per hour. His slider velocity is down as well for the fifth straight season, and the lack of power makes his once-nasty curveball significantly less effective.
Case in point, his poor swing and miss rate. That number sits at only 8.3%. In his prime, when he was winning Cy Young Awards, his swinging strike rate was double that. He’s also seen a dip in his called strike rate, while his base on balls frequency is on track to be the highest of his career.
His K/9 currently sits at a dismal 4.5. That rate should eventually improve, but it likely won’t get substantially better after posting a career-worst 7.2 K/9 mark in 2024.
As for the matchup today versus the Guardians, it’s not conducive to producing strikeouts. Cleveland fans at a below league average rate, and if you remove Austin Hedges from the equation, who isn’t likely to play today anyway, the team has a career strikeout rate below 20% versus Kershaw.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)
While we’re fading Kershaw K’s, we’re banking on a big strikeout performance from Phillies AceZack Wheeler. The 34-year-old is one of baseball’s elite K producers, ranking fifth in strikeouts through two months. Wheeler has fanned 7 or more batters in nine of 11 starts so far this season, including his lone appearance against today’s opponent, Atlanta.
The right-hander has a long track record of success versus the Braves hitters, posting out-of-this-world strikeout numbers. In a 291 at-bat sample size, he’s whiffed the current batters in Atlanta’s lineup 91 times. That’s a 31.2% strikeout rate, with no player fanning more than Marcell Ozuna(25 times).
Wheeler currently owns a career-best 11.21 K/9 rate, which coincides with a 1.3% increase in his swinging strike rate over 2024. He’s generating swings and misses at an elite 14% clip, while the velocity is up on his three major pitches this season.