We struck out Monday in the MLB player props market, putting us in a 0-2 hole for the week right out of the gate. We’re looking to bounce back today and have identified a couple of fantastic starting pitcher props to target.
Our favorite bet comes to us from New York, where Mets right-hander Kodai Senga is in arguably the most favorable matchup possible versus the lowly Pirates.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 13
Kodai Senga Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
Senga has been lights out this season, yielding one run or less in five of seven starts. That brings under 1.5 runs allowed in play, especially given the fair (-125) price.
Senga sports a sparkling 1.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, allowing just 28 hits over 38.2 innings of work. He’s surrendered a hard hit rate of 31%, the lowest of his career, and hasn’t coughed up a home run since his first outing of the season.
That spells trouble for the Pittsburgh lineup, who enter play as baseball’s lowest scoring team. The Pirates are averaging a league-worst 3.1 runs per game and have been to 2 runs or less in seven of their past 14 games. They also rank bottom four in batting average, slugging, and OPS, and have a dreadful history versus Senga.
The 32-year-old has held the current Pittsburgh bats to a 0.77/.250/0.77 slash line, with a 31%strikeout rate. Speaking of strikeouts, only seven teams whiff more often than the Pirates, and they start the day with a .210 average away from home.
Kyle Freeland Under 15.5 Outs (+105 at DraftKings)
While we’re backing Senga, we’re fading Colorado’s Kyle Freeland. The lefty is off to an 0-5 start this season, posting a 6.41 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Freeland has coughed up 18 hits and 12 runs in his last 7.1 innings alone. He’s yielding a hard-hit rate of 43.1%, one of the worst marks of his career, and his velocity is down across each of his three best pitches this season.
As for the matchup, you’d think a date with the Rangers would be a gift. After all, Texas brings one of the lowest-scoring lineups into play. However, an opportunity to face Freeland might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
The current batters in the Rangers lineup have absolutely mashed versus Freeland in the past.
They’re slashing .536/.567/.661 against him over 56 at-bats, with no player doing more damage than Corey Seager. The 31-year-old is 14-for-23 (.609) all-time versus Freeland. Seager sat out last night’s game, but if he draws the start today, consider firing his overs in the player prop market as well.