Our player props card was washed away yesterday, as both of our picks were involved in games that were postponed. If they were good enough to bet yesterday, they’re good enough to bet today, and we’ll start our card with under 4.5 hits allowed by Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for June 19
Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135 at Bet365)
The price has moved from -130 to -135 at Bet365, but the odds are still more favorable there than what the other commercial books are offering. Everything we wrote yesterday about the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner still applies, as this is about as good a matchup that a pitcher can face.
Skubal enters play in spectacular form, yielding only 1 run over his last 30.2 innings. He’s allowed fewer than 4.5 hits three times in his past four starts, and five times since the start of May. Opponent batters are making hard contact on less than 28% of their at-bats, and have been limited to a putrid .197/.225/.274 slash line.
The icing on the cake is the horrendous state of the Pittsburgh lineup. The Pirates have struggled to generate offense all season, ranking in the bottom five in hits, average, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)
For our next prop, we’re sticking in the pitching props market targeting over 5.5 strikeouts for San Fran’s Logan Webb. The 28-year-old has racked up 31 k’s in his last four starts alone, lasting 6+ innings in each outing. He enters play today with a K/9 in the double-digits for the first time in his seven-year career, and his 32% swinging + called strike rate is the highest mark of his MLB tenure.
Webb will face a Guardians squad that just whiffed 10 times against Justin Verlander and a collection of Giants relievers. Their lineup has a strikeout rate of 26% against righties this season, and has fanned in 28% of their lifetime at-bats versus Webb.
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-115 at Bet365)
Sometimes, a player just sees the ball more clearly coming out of a specific pitcher’s hand. That’s the case with the Mets Brandon Nimmo against Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, as he absolutely owns the Braves right-hander.
Nimmo is 8-for-16 lifetime versus Strider, with 2 home runs and 5 RBI. He’s also drawn 3 walks, so not only is he hitting him hard, but he has the discipline to wait for his pitch. Nimmo is heating up in June after a slugging May, slashing .270/.343/.492, with 10 runs, 4 homers, and 10 RBI.
We’re betting him to exceed 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI tonight, a feat he’s accomplished nine times this month already.
As for Strider, he’s on pace for the worst statistical season of his young career. His velocity is down a full mile per hour on his fastball, slider, and curveball, while his hard-hit allowed rate is a career-worst 42%. He’s yielded 3 runs or more in three of his past five starts, and has allowed a .325/.419/.562 slash line to Mets hitters over 80 at-bats.