A split on Sunday’s MLB player props card capped off a 10-5 week. We turn the page on a new week today, with an 11-game slate to focus on.
After a week of incredibly high total games, no contest today boasts an over/under north of 8.5. That means online sportsbooks expect some high-level pitching performances, and the one that stands out as the best opportunity to target comes to us from Philadelphia.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 12
Matthew Liberatore 5+ Strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
That’s where the Cardinals will give the ball to Matthew Liberatore. The 25-year-old has pitched incredibly well over the last few weeks, allowing two or fewer runs in five straight starts. He’s fresh off his best start of the season, scattering three hits over 7 innings against the Nationals, while striking out 8.
The assignment today is one he’s familiar with. Liberatore held Philadelphia to three hits over six shutout innings last month, striking out 7 Philly batters. The Phillies enter play striking out at a league average rate, but have a dreadful history versus the Cards lefty.
Current Philly hitters are slashing just .189/.246/.302 against Liberatore. They’re striking out at a 38% clip over 53 at-bats, with no player fanning more than Kyle Schwarber. The slugger is 0-for-8 all-time versus Liberatore with 7 punch outs.
As for Liberatore’s advanced metrics, the arrow is pointing up. He’s generating a called + swinging strike rate of 30%, the highest of his career. He’s reached 5+ strikeouts in four of his past six starts, and he’s a great bet to do so again tonight.
Oswaldo Cabrera Under 0.5 Hits (+115 at DraftKings)
For our next wager, we’re going plus-money hunting in the Yankees-Mariners game. Our target is under 0.5 hits for Oswaldo Cabrera, who’s been one of the coldest hitters in baseball across the month of May.
Cabrera enters play tonight slashing .083/.179/.167 this month. He’s gone hitless in six of eight games so far, and has zero multi-hit efforts since the calendar turned to May.
A switch-hitter, Cabrera has been significantly more productive from the right side. Bad news for him tonight, as he’ll face righty Emerson Hancock. Cabrera is slashing .226/.305/.310 from the left side of the plate, compared to .316/.381/.316 from the right side of the dish.
Hancock, meanwhile, has four straight starts with 2 runs allowed or less. He’s held opposing hitters to a .200 batting average this month and is limiting the opposition to a 34% hard hit rate.
Hancock’s velocity is up this season over last year, and his bread-and-butter sinker is producing ground balls at a 50% clip. That’s bad news for Cabrera, who makes hard contact on only 27% of his at-bats.