The Mets head to the Bank for a huge three-game series in Philadelphia over the weekend. The Phillies head into this series riding a nice hot streak, while the Mets are in the opposite situation. We could not get any of our two home run predictions to come through yesterday (the one day we decided to stay off Schwarber, of course), but we were correct on the Cristopher Sanchez under strikeout prop, so it was not all bad.
As for tonight, the Phillies have to feel confident with Zack Wheeler on the mound, while the Mets have young pitcher Blade Tidwell making his second start of the season. With excellent home run weather in Philly today, please check out our favorite MLB player prop picks for the Mets vs. Phillies tonight, including the best home run predictions.
Best Home Run Picks for Monday, June 16th
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Nick Castellanos to hit a home run (+550 on BetMGM
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- Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+655 on BetMGM)
- Byron Stott to hit a home run (+725 on BetMGM
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Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+550) BetMGM
It is tough to dive much into the starting pitching matchup specifically, as Tidwell is an unknown being such a young pitcher without a lot of major league experience, and it is also unlikely he makes it more than four innings. So, what we are doing with today's predictions is rocking with batters on the Phillies that are swinging a hot bat, which includes Castellanos.
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While he only has one home run to show for it, he actually leads the Phillies in total barrels over the last week with five. That includes missing a game in that stretch, so that gives him an impressive barrel rate of 26.3%. Granted, it is a small sample of only seven days, of course it is nice to see Casty barreling the ball up. He did not have a great day at the plate yesterday, but we can forgive him for that as he had eight barrels in his last eight games heading into last night.
This is also an incredible day from a weather perspective for home runs in Philly. It's supposed to be sunny, the temperature is in the 80s, and there are slight winds blowing out of the stadium. Combine all that with the Bank already being a hitter-friendly park, and anything put in the air with a decent amount of power has a great chance of clearing a fence. That is perfect for Castellanos, who leads the Phillies in fly-ball rate over the last week, hitting a fly-ball over 50% of the time.
Brandon Marsh to Hit a Home Run (+650) BetMGM
We are backing Marsh because, not only did he have three HardHits yesterday (only Philly to do so), all three were hit just below 100 mph EV, with two of them being put in the air. He had a flyout that was 365-feet that would have been a home run in 14/30 stadiums (including at the Phillies stadium), and another 375-foot flyout that was hit to center field so it would not have been a home run in any stadium, but it's nice to hit him both hit the ball hard and put some air under it.
It was a frustrating 0/3 at the plate yesterday for Marsh, as all three outs were HardHit, but he had been racking up hits prior to that, batting .400 with a .567 slugging and 1.008 OPS since 6/8. No home runs in this stretch, so there is some risk here, of course, but that is also why we are getting such a good price at +650 odds.
Marsh has three doubles and a triple in this stretch, so if you wanted to go the safer option, you could always go with 2+ bases or hits + runs + RBIs. That said, with such good home run weather in Philly today and the juicy odds, let's ride with the home run.
Bryson Stott to Hit a Home Run (+725) BetMGM
Nick Castellanos is one of two Phillies that has a fly-ball rate above 50% over the last seven days. The other one? That would be Bryson Stott. If you go back to the last 14 days as opposed to the last week, Stott leads the Phillies with a fly-ball rate of 54.3%, and we are getting a great price at +725 odds for him to hit a home run.
While Stott obviously does not have the traditional power numbers like a lot of other batters on the Phillies, the hope here is that we can catch him in a window where he goes on a mini home run binge, as he just hit one a couple of games ago.
He has two barrels and eight HardHits over the last week, which are not incredible numbers that will put him in the Hall of Fame; they are above his season and career average in terms of barrel rate and HardHit rate. Both of those barrels came in the last four games as well. That home run he hit was in a much more difficult home run environment at the Marlins home stadium, so if he can get similar lift on a ball hit with some speed, he could send one over the fence tonight as well.