Thanks to all the games getting postponed yesterday, a normally light Thursday suddenly features 14 games to dive into. With a heat wave making its way across the country, it is also positive home run weather at a lot of places. So, hopefully, we are able to have better success than yesterday, going 0-3 on our home run predictions.
So, without further ado, please check out our best MLB home run props for today, Thursday, June 19.
Best Home Run Picks for Thursday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel to make these home run picks:
- Brent Rooker (+340 on FanDuel)
- Juan Soto (+430 on FanDuel)
- Cam Smith (+680 on FanDuel)
Rooker goes Yard at Sutter Park
Rooker has admittedly been slightly cold recently in the home run department, but he is going up against a lefty, and that is when you want to target him. On the year, he has an ISO rate of .328 against LHP, all the way up from .183 against RHP. It is a dramatic difference, and he is also going up against a pitcher who gets smoked in Colton Gordon.
On the year, Gordon has allowed a barrel rate of 10.8% against RHH, allowing a home run every 17.60 at-bats with a HardHit rate of 53%. His biggest issue against righties is allowing them to put the ball in the air, with a low ground-ball rate of 30% against RHH. That is tough going up against someone like Rooker, who does a good job of lifting the ball.
His launch angle is slightly down from 2023 and 2024, but it is a skillset that he has in him, and tonight is the perfect situation for him to send one over a fence.
Juan Soto Stays Hot, Hitting a Homer in Atlanta
Soto came through for us two days ago, so here's hoping we can get him again. He did not have a good day at the plate yesterday, but that was also against Chris Sale, so we can forgive him for that.
Prior to that, Soto was red hot at the plate. He is one of five batters with 13 or more HardHits in the last seven days, and he is one of eight with 23 or more in the last 14. Over the last 30 days, he has a 16.3% barrel rate and a 75% HardHit rate, all good numbers. So, even with how frequently he walks, he is still destroying the baseball.
Strider is on the mound for the Braves, who is a great pitcher, but he has not yet found his stride (no pun intended) this season. He has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats to lefties, and overall has allowed a barrel rate of 11.8%. The biggest issue for Strider is his 4-seam fastball, which he throws roughly 55% of the time. Soto has, for the entirety of his career, hit 4-seamers incredibly well.
This year, in a somewhat down year for Soto in terms of raw power numbers, he still has a 13.46% barrel rate and 73.91% HardHit rate against 4-seam FBs from RHP.
Cam Smith Matches Rooker with a Homer in Sutter
Cam Smith is a young batter for the Astros who has been hitting rocket after rocket at the plate, and we are getting great odds on him at +680.
He leads the Astros in HardHits over the last 7 and the last 14 days, and he especially crushes left-handed pitching, which is what he is facing tonight. He has the best barrel rate on the Astros against lefties on the year (20.69%), and over the last month, his numbers are absurd against LHP with a 30% barrel rate, 87.50% HardHit rate, and 62.50% fly-ball rate.
Yes, that is a small sample size with only 10 ABs in the last month, but he has been excellent against the lefties he has seen. He is also going up against a big home run pitcher in Jacob Lopez, who has allowed a home run ever 14.50 at-bats over his last five starts, and is even worse against RHH specifically.