For the Houston Astros, the MLB trade deadline is a time to add much-needed players for a postseason push. But, for general manager Dana Brown, he is facing a very difficult decision in the starting rotation.
In an article from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the problem facing Brown and the Astros with the starting rotation was made apparent. While Houston could look to make a change in the rotation, it could come at the expense of their current crop of starters.
"Rookies Colton Gordon," Rome writes, "Brandon Walter, and Ryan Gusto have held their own while Lance McCullers Jr. is in the throes of inconsistencies expected from someone who did not appear in a major-league game for 915 days."
Those starters for the Astros have combined to have a 4.87 ERA this season at the All-Star break. They aren't the best, but even so, the rest of the rotation potential is also up in the air.
"Whether any of them inspire confidence to start a playoff game - or something with similar stakes in September - is a question Houston's baseball operations officials must ponder over for the next three weeks." Rome wrote. Whether they are prepared to gamble on the health of Arrighetti, France, Javier, or Garcia in their stead is another."
While Houston could look to add a starter at the deadline, the team could be getting four starters off the injured list at some point this season. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia all could return to the rotation this season.
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Combined with the current rotation, Houston would have ten potential arms who could start games this season. It's a large surplus of starters, and adding an outside talent to such a group might seem redundant.
However, even with all of the potential options, two (Javier and Garcia) are coming off Tommy John surgery, while another (France) is coming off shoulder surgery, and one (Arrighetti) is coming off a fractured thumb.
Going ahead with full confidence that the injured starters can contribute at a high level this season is a huge risk. While it'd save a lot of assets if the Astros didn't swing a deal for a new starter, it could result in disaster if none return to form this season.
While the Astros could take a risk on their injured starters contributing once they return, it'd be a huge gamble to take. But, moving trade chips for a starter could be a waste if the injured starters return and are strong.
It's a conundrum for Brown and the front office. What decision Houston takes at the deadline could shape the rest of the season, and potentially, change the course of franchise history.
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