There’s a full MLB slate on Friday for our home run picks. Along with that, there are some fantastic hitting venues to consider, including Coors Field and Sutter Health Park.
For this article specifically, we will be diving into our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Friday. There are MLB betting bonuses available for these HR picks on FanDuel and bet365.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Friday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Corbin Carroll | +270 on bet365 |
| Corey Seager | +400 on DraftKings |
| Byron Buxton | +400 on bet365 |
Trust Carroll at Coors Field
Unsurprisingly, this game at the Rockies home stadium is among the best home run games of the slate, with a +20% home run index for today. The hot temperatures and low barometric pressure are going to help with carry, along with the high altitude which is always the case in Denver.
As far as Carroll goes, he is on a roll and one of the hottest batters at the plate in the entire league. He is tied with two other batters with the league lead in total barrels over the last seven days with six total and is tied with one other batter for the league lead in total HardHits as well with 15.
So, he has been on fire, and has a fantastic pitching matchup against Tanner Gordon, the Rockies starter, who has allowed a home run every 14 at-bats to lefties over the last six weeks.
His numbers are mostly bad across the board, including a barrel rate of 12%, HardHit rate of 48.50% and a line-drive + fly-ball rate of 60%, all with a low strikeout rate of 15.50%, so the ball is consistently in play. Carroll goes yard tonight.
Seager Homers for the Rangers
Twice in the last week Seager has been somewhat robbed of a home run. His last game played on Wednesday, 8/13, he smoked a baseball 104.6 mph off the bat that traveled 398 feet, but ended up being a flyout and would have been a home run in 8/30 stadiums. Based on the exit velocity and launch angle, it would have been a home 56% of the time.
Then, back on 8/10, he was legitimately robbed of a home run by Phillies center fielder who reached over the wall to take a homer away from Seager. That was 104.7 mph off the bat, traveled 390 feet and would have been a home run in 18/30 parks. So, this is all to say that Seager has had some unlucky outs over the last week or so.
The good news, however, is that Seager has overall been hitting the ball well with 11 HardHits and three barrels over the last week.
He should also have the advantage over Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has allowed a home run every 15.40 at-bats to left-handed hitters. Hopefully, the bad luck for Seager ends tonight.
Buxton Goes Long for the Mariners
Buxton returned from injury back on August 11th and has only played four games since coming back. That said, he has been hitting very well in these four games with a combined three barrels and seven HardHits.
Target Field is generally not a hitter friendly stadium, but the weather today is fantastic for home runs, with extreme humidity and low barometric pressure, which will help with carry.
Buxton will be facing Charlie Morton tonight as the Tigers starter, who has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats to right-handed hitters over the last six weeks. His numbers are relatively average across the board, but the pitch that gets hit the hardest for Morton is his curveball, which Buxton has fantastic numbers against.
On the year, Buxton has a .462 ISO rate, 15.50%-barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and fly-ball rate against curveballs from RHP. He'll crush one tonight.