We have 15 MLB games to dive into for our home run picks on Wednesday. With hot weather starting to make its way across the country again, there are fantastic hitting conditions across the board.
Below, we explain our favorite MLB home run props for August 13th. There are MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel for these HR picks.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Corbin Carroll | +280 on bet365 |
| Trent Grisham | +320 on bet365 |
| Riley Greene | +390 on FanDuel |
Trust Carroll to Homer in Texas
Even as the Diamondbacks season has cratered with them selling at the trade deadline, Corbin Carroll has been fantastic recently. Over the last week, he is one of seven batters with 12 or more HardHits and is tied with the league lead in total barrels with six. Not only that, but he leads the entire MLB in total barrels over the last 14 days with nine, and no other batter has more than seven.
He's been great at the plate and has a fun matchup today against his former teammate Merrill Kelly. Kelly had been with the Diamondbacks since 2019 but was traded to the Rangers at the trade deadline. Kelly is a decent pitcher overall, but he can get hit up by lefties.
On the year, he has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to LHH, a number that jumps up to every 13.50 at-bats over the last six weeks. He has really struggled with his 4-seam fastball, allowing left-handed hitters to have a .424 ISO against that pitch. Unfortunately, Carroll crushes 4-seamers from RHP, with a .339 ISO rate against that pitch-mix on the year. He goes yard tonight.
Grisham Goes Deep at Yankee Stadium
This is one of the games referenced above that has fantastic hitting weather, with a +31% home run index at Yankee Stadium today. This is also a stadium where you want to target left-handed pull hitters, as Yankee Stadium has the very short right field porch. That is perfect for Grisham, who has a fly-ball rate of 43.5% and pull-rate of 48.5% on the year.
Grisham has also been hitting well recently, with 21 HardHits and seven barrels over the last 14 days, which ties him with 13 other batters that also have seven barrels over the last two weeks.
He will be facing Joe Ryan as the starting pitcher for the Twins, who is another pitcher that has allowed some pop to left-handed bats recently. Over the last six weeks, he has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats to LHH, with relatively below-average numbers across the board in terms of barrel rate (7.50%), HardHit rate (40.50%) and line-drive + fly-ball rate (78%).
Greene Clears at Fence for Tigers
Riley Greene was slumping for first nine days in August but has really come along the last three games. He has a combined seven HardHits and three barrels in those three games, with six of those seven hits being above 100+ mph exit velocity. The one that wasn't 100 EV was 99.2 mph, so it was close.
Despite not going yard yesterday, he had two hits that traveled 380+ feet that were 104+ mph off the bat. So, we are backing a batter swinging a hot bat in a good situation with with solid hitting weather (+14% home run index) and a fantastic matchup.
Shane Smith is the White Sox starter, who has gotten tattoo'd recently. Over the last six weeks, he has allowed a home run every 8.25 at-bats to LHH, a truly awful number. In this stretch he has allowed a barrel rate of 9%, HardHit rate of 59, and a combined line-drive + fly-ball rate of 82%.