We have 11 MLB games set for Monday, meaning there are 22 teams to consider for our home run picks. There should be plenty of dingers as warm weather once again making its way through the country.
Let's hope to have some success again after getting one of our home run predictions correct yesterday. Read below to learn about the best home run picks for Monday, August 11th. There are MLB betting bonuses that you can use for these wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks for Monday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Kody Clemens | +360 on FanDuel |
| Tyler Soderstrom | +475 on bet365 |
| Colson Montgomery | +500 on Fanatics |
Clemens Homers at Yankee Stadium
As mentioned above, the MLB slate today features a good number of positive home run venues, and this game at Yankee stadium is one of them. Already a hitter-friendly park for left-handed pull hitters thanks to a short right field porch, today specifically features mild temperatures in the high 70s/low 80s and double-digit winds slightly blowing out. Overall, this game has a +19% home run index considering the weather and park factors.
That short right field porch is especially important for someone like Kody Clemens, who does a fantastic job both pulling the ball and hitting it in the air. On the year, he has a fly-ball rate of 45% and a pull-rate of 48.5%, two good numbers.
Clemens has also been hitting the ball well recently. He is tied for the league lead in total HardHits over the last seven days with 13 total and has the fifth-most over the last 14 days with 22. Those are healthy numbers, and he should have the matchup advantage over Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren.
Over the last six weeks, Warren has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats to left-handed hitters. Clemens goes yard tonight.
Soderstrom Sends One Deep at Sutter Health Park
Speaking of positive home run venues, this Athletics home game is the best home run game on the slate today. The temperature will be in the 90s when the game starts with low barometric pressure, combined with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. Overall, this game has a +34% home run index, which leads the slate today.
Soderstrom, meanwhile, has been hitting the ball well recently with 10 HardHits over the last week and 17 over the last two weeks. Not quite at the same level of Clemens detailed above, but still acceptable numbers overall.
This is another situation where we are fading a pitcher that gives up a ton of home runs, this time in Ryan Pepiot, who has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats over the last six weeks. He does allow slightly more home runs to righties than he does to lefties, but his numbers against LHH are still below-average across the board.
Most notably his barrel rate of 10% and HardHit rate of 45%, which are both higher than his numbers against righties. Trust Soderstrom tonight.
Montgomery Stays Hot, Goes Back-to-Back
Montgomery is a young slugger for the White Sox who was recently called up, and has been downright fantastic over the last couple weeks. He was called up at the beginning of July and it took some time for him to get his footing, but his numbers since July 22nd are among the best in the MLB.
He has hit eight home runs in this stretch, which is tied for the second-most in the MLB, behind three batters who each have nine. He has the third-best ISO rate in this stretch, with the second-best barrel rate. While he did hit a home run yesterday, he has already gone back-to-back four separate times in this stretch, highlighted when he homered in three straight games from 7/22-7/24.
As for this game tonight, the venue at the White Sox home stadium is just behind Sutter Health Park in terms of home run differential, +30% on the day. This is the second-highest home run index of the day thanks to the weather and a hitter-friendly park at Rate Field.
Montgomery will be facing the Tigers starting pitcher Chris Paddock, who has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats to LHH over the last six weeks.