Explaining why F1 teams' imminent car upgrades will be among the last

Ben McCarthy

Explaining why F1 teams' imminent car upgrades will be among the last image

07232025

2025 is a very unique season.

No, it is not the fact that the gaps are often so wafer-thin, it is not that the driver market situation is chaotic (though it is a consequence of this wider point) and it is not down to who leads the championship.

Actually, this campaign is a unique one because of the compromise that is needed by Formula 1 teams, as the all-new 2026 regulations loom.

Though the sport, and its teams, push everything to its strenuous limits; it is physically and logically impossible to prioritise both the 2025 and 2026 regulations to maximum effect. Couple that with the cost cap and the limited time that the teams can spend in their wind tunnels, firm decisions must be made about a constructors' priority.

For some teams, like Williams, they have long-committed to undermining their 2025 efforts, so that they start 2026 on the right footing. 

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What is the benefit for a team to do this?

Because 2025 is the last year of the venturi-tunnel-floor regulation cycle, a philosophy and design in which downforce is generated, that means that very little development that is applied to the cars for this season are going to be felt beyond it.

For instance, if a team spends time, effort and resource behind a front-wing adjustment, that move will likely be nullified by the new 2026 regulations, because the front wing design will be different. 

And with next year's rules cycle set to last for more seasons to come, the longer-term benefit of prioritising car development for the following season is an appealing one.

Yes, it does risk making the current season a missed opportunity. Williams' lack of development has thwarted the strong baseline that they built up early on this season but if it yields an even more competitive 2026, it is unlikely that they will regret their development strategy. 

In 2013, Mercedes had an outside chance of winning that year's titles, but with the new V6 turbo-hybrid era looming, they opted to prioritise the latter rules set. 

And it worked a treat as they won the next seven drivers' and eight constructors' championship titles. 

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Why do teams not always do this?

In other instances, teams who have a plausible chance of winning championships will prioritise current-season development, because who shirks at the idea of winning a championship?

In 2008, Ferrari and McLaren placed so much focus on trying to win that year's championship that by the start of 2009, where the aerodynamics of the car had been heavily simplified, they had slumped down the leader board. 

In fact in that 2009 season, it was not until the season's halfway stage where either team started fighting for race victories and that cycle of regulations would see neither of those two win a drivers' or constructors' championship. 

When this strategy has not worked

But a championship is a championship. There are no guarantees that compromising one season will galvanise a squad for the next set of regulations. 

BMW Sauber learned this when they switched off development of their 2008 car, despite Robert Kubica leading the drivers' championship and the team sitting three points beneath the top of the constructors' standings. 

This was with the intention of being successful with the already-mentioned 2009 rules set, but it did not yield the competitiveness that the team were looking for. Hence, the strategic misstep likely cost them at least a shot at the world  championship. 

What to expect from the rest of 2025

As McLaren lead the table by over 200 points, it is unlikely that they need to develop their machinery any further. And though Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull will continue to make minor tweaks, any substantial development is unlikely to yield a championship win.

And in the midfield, though some teams will want to head that respective battle, the damage that can be left by starting on the back foot next season could last beyond 2026.

So do not expect too many performance swings, influenced by car development, beyond the summer break. This does not mean that the performance levels will be stagnant, as these current generation of cars are really sensitive to differing track characteristics. 

That means there will still be performance swings, but an innately less competitive car will not be expected to turn their season around, nor vice versa. 

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Ben McCarthy

Ben McCarthy is a freelance sports journalist, commentator and broadcaster. Having specialised his focus on football and Formula One, he has striven to share and celebrate the successes of both mainstream and local teams and athletes. Thanks to his work at the Colchester Gazette, Hospital Radio Chelmsford, BBC Essex and National League TV, he has established an appreciation for the modern-day rigours of sports journalism and broadcasting.