George Russell admitted ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix that the reason why his strong 2025 season has not been rewarded with a fresh new Mercedes contract was because the silver arrows have their eyes set upon Max Verstappen.
Russell has been one of the top drivers of this 2025 season. His dominant win in Canada confirmed his lightning speed and sharp execution. It also proved he will take the chance to win when the opportunity arises.
This time last week... a first win of 2025 for George Russell 💙#F1 #CanadianGP pic.twitter.com/TONwsnd82k
— Formula 1 (@F1) June 22, 2025
But will he get that chance with Mercedes in 2026? If Verstappen were to sign up to Mercedes, would they undermine their faith in perhaps the next generation's benchmark, Kimi Antonelli and axe him?
With a new set of regulations set to re-shape the pecking order for next season, the paddock understanding is that Mercedes are best placed to maximise them.
This would mark their best chance of championship-winning glory for half a decade when they won the 2021 Constructors' Championship, when Verstappen famously seized the drivers' title from their lead driver, Lewis Hamilton.
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Why Mercedes for Verstappen?
Such was the jaw-dropping ferocity and intensity of the 2021 championship battle between Verstappen and Hamilton, it seemed implausible that the Dutchman would ever consider joining Mercedes.
Verstappen also has a contract with Red Bull that runs until 2028, but included within it will inevitably be performance-related clauses. The specifics of them are not clear, which is what casts a degree of doubt over this entire situation.
However, the Verstappen camp do have a strong rapport with Mercedes team principal and part-owner Toto Wolf.
Also, with the demise of Red Bull's once-dominant performance (the team won all but one Grand Prix in 2023 and are currently P4 in the 2025 Constructors' Championship), patience is running thin at the squad's lack of development.
The departures of multiple personnel has also not helped Red Bull's case. Legendary designer Adrian Newey announced his departure last season, as well as sporting director Jonathan Wheatley.
Bob Marshall, their former chief engineering officer, also left, but headed to McLaren, where he seems to have enriched their ascent to the top of the championship table.
There is also the case for 2026. While Mercedes are expected to be running at the front, Red Bull have a few more question marks hanging over their heads.
Their partnership with Honda (who still aid the development of Red Bull Power Trains) comes to a close by the end of 2025.
And for 2026, the team's power unit department will be paired with Ford who have had no involvement in the sport since they sold their team (named Jaguar) to Red Bull, over two decades back.
Verstappen, like legends of Senna and Schumacher before him, strives to maximise every ounce of potential that lays before him. In return, he demands that same level of hunger, dedication and performance.
That performance has not been forthcoming. Despite winning last year's drivers' championship, his Red Bull team's development has been viewed as an immense disappointment, with the team now sat fourth in this year's constructors' standings.
Hence, with Mercedes' short and medium-term prospects looking markedly better than Red Bull's, it may might be a risk worth taking, if he is to fight for more wins and championships.
Verstappen following his victory at Imola, in May.
Why Verstappen for Mercedes?
With this being Mercedes' first season without Lewis Hamilton since 2012, they needed a strong driver pairing.
George Russell and Kimi Antonelli inarguably fulfil that criteria given that they are both among the stand out drivers from their respective generations.
Russell saw off Lando Norris and Alex Albon to win the 2018 Formula 2 Championship, and has been immensely quick in the six and a half years of his time in the sport.
Meanwhile Antonelli, who is just 18-years-old, would never have been thrown into the Mercedes seat, and chosen as Lewis Hamilton's successor, had the team not believed in his prodigious speed and potential.
Antonelli has not beaten teammate Russell in a Grand Prix so far in 2025 and his weekend-crushing crashes, like at Monaco and last weekend in Austria, have clearly not helped. But with such inexperienced drivers, the peaks are more important than the troughs, and Antonelli's peaks are mouth-watering.
Just look at his sprint pole position, in Miami, which was a circuit that he had never driven beforehand. Only truly special talents can deliver in such circumstances, and he did.
But, Verstappen is widely considered not just the stand-out driver of this generation, he has already solidified himself among the pantheon of Formula 1 greats.
He has dominated with equally dominant machinery, and has been a point of difference with his relentless execution and consistency.
Take a look at Red Bull's results in 2025, though they have slipped to fourth in the constructors' championship, they would be last without Verstappen. That should speak volumes about how important he is to them.
His supreme feel for the sensitivities and shortfalls for the RB21 is something that his teammates simply cannot tame.
Therefore, and as harsh as this is on Russell and Antonelli, the arrival of Verstappen would be seen by many as to improve the line-up. An organisation and team as dedicated to winning as Mercedes would not waste that chance if it were legitimate.
Current Mercedes teammates: George Russell and Kimi Antonelli
Where does this mean for Russell?
The British driver is in this position because he is not the 4-time world champion and generation-defining driver that the Dutchman is considered to be. Russell is from that same generation, given that he is less than six months younger than the world champion.
And by pure chance, Mercedes believe that Russell's current Italian teammate has the potential to be the next generation's benchmark. Now that Antonelli is at Mercedes, there appears little sense in letting him go, unless their faith in him falters.
In fact, one of many reasons why Antonelli is Russell's current teammate is because Wolff did not want to waste one second of the Italian's journey and potential, just as he did with Russell beforehand. The Austrian has suggested that the Brit was ready for the team even before he was eventually signed by them.
This was brutal on Russell, who spent three seasons, between 2019 and 2021, in Williams machinery that did not hold up to his potential and then joined Mercedes just as their pre-eminence ended.
He was once deemed their future, but can he really still be seen as that if his bosses are not giving him their unwavering backing?
The team's struggles in this ground effect era have likely prevented Russell from fighting for the championship, who beat his seven-time-world-champion teammate in two of their three seasons together.
While nothing has been announced, it is obviously very telling that a driver as good as Russell (in the form that he is in) has not be re-signed, yet. A team like Mercedes would not delay contract extensions if they thought they could not get better than what they have.
And what they have right now, in Russell, is someone who is currently too good to even be considered to be dropped.
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