The United States will contest for a spot in the 2025 Gold Cup final as they meet Guatemala in St. Louis on Wednesday.
Looking to put themselves back on top of CONCACAF's championship competition and supplant defending champions Mexico, the USMNT has one more step to take for a potential final against their border rivals.
Despite thumping defeats in the pre-tournament friendlies, the U.S. has looked impressive through the Gold Cup itself against continental competition. Mauricio Pochettino's side won their group with three victories in three matches before managing to squeak by Costa Rica in the quarterfinals on a penalty shootout behind Matt Freese's heroics.
Guatemala qualified for the knockout stage by finishing second in Group C behind Panama and then upsetting Canada in the quarterfinals in a penalty shootout of their own. Rubio Rubin, a former USMNT international, scored the equalizer for Guatemala with 20 minutes remaining.
The Sporting News presents odds and predictions to bet and make the match more exciting.
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USA vs. Guatemala prediction, odds
- Score prediction: USA 4-1 Guatemala
The United States has done well this Gold Cup handling opponents who are truly inferior, having blasted Trinidad & Tobago 6-0 in the opener while beating Haiti and Saudi Arabia handily on the run of play, even if the scoreline doesn't reflect the domination.
Even the shootout victory over Costa Rica was largely dominated by the USMNT, who conceded twice on individual errors to let their opponents hang around.
The U.S. has historically pummeled Guatemala, winning four of their past five meetings by a combined 17-1 scoreline, only suffering defeat in the other during a 2016 World Cup qualifier on the road in Guatemala, a result which the U.S. avenged appropriately four days later with a 4-0 win at home.
Expect the United States to find a way through this match comfortably as long as they maintain their composure and continue to build as a unit as has been the theme this summer.
| Bet365* | |
| USA win | 2/9 |
| Draw | 4/1 |
| Guatemala win | 9/1 |
| Both teams to score | Y: 5/4 N: 7/10 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | O: 73/100 U: 11/10 |
| USA to advance | 1/9 |
| Guatemala to advance | 5/1 |
* Odds correct at time of publish but subject to change
USA vs. Guatemala best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — YES
- Odds: 5/4 (Betway)
While we expect the United States to win this match, the U.S. has also been extremely error-prone this summer against all opposition. While they managed to keep clean sheets against Trinidad & Tobago, who were terrible all tournament, and Saudi Arabia, who sold out defensively, they were below standards defensively in their other matches.
The U.S. made countless errors in the pre-tournament friendlies and even conceded cheap goals to Haiti and Costa Rica, as well.
Guatemala, meanwhile, can score when given chances. They put up three goals on Guadeloupe, found the net against Jamaica and Canada, and were only blanked when rotating the squad against Panama.
USA vs. Guatemala prop bet
- Pick: USA over 6.5 total corners
- Odds: 6/5 (Betway)
The United States have made wide play a big part of their approach, especially when opponents look to take away Malik Tillman's buildup through the middle of the pitch.
They won nine corners against Costa Rica while battling to draw level or take the lead against a team they expected to be in front of, bagged six against Haiti, and 10 against Trinidad & Tobago in a game they completely dominated. The only game in the Gold Cup in which they failed to pick up corners was against Saudi Arabia, who completely sold out defensively.
Guatemala, meanwhile, are happy to give up corners as long as the opponent doesn't have space through the middle. They allowed nine to 10-man Canada, eight against Guadeloupe, and seven against Panama.
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USA vs. Guatemala starting lineups, team news
Mauricio Pochettino kept confidence in goalkeeper Matt Freese after his glaring error against Haiti, and his penalty shootout heroics rewarded that faith. It's hard to imagine too many changes to the lineup the rest of the way, although the boss could consider a switch at left-back as Max Arfsten has been defensively porous. John Tolkin could get a chance.
Johnny Cardoso picked up an ankle injury and missed the quarterfinal match, while Haji Wright's Gold Cup is over due to an Achilles injury.
The U.S. are without injured regulars Sergino Dest, Antonee Robinson, Ricardo Pepi, and Folarin Balogun for this tournament, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Gio Reyna are unavailable as they are participating in the Club World Cup. Christian Pulisic and Yunus Musah requested to have the summer off and are not with the side.
Yellow card accumulation is wiped in the semifinals, meaning players can only be banned from the final if they are sent off in this game.
- USA predicted starting XI (4-3-3, right to left): Freese (GK) — Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten — Berhalter, Adams, de la Torre — Tillman, Agyemang, Luna.
Injured: Cardoso (ankle), Wright (Achilles), Pepi (knee), Steffen (knee), Dest (fitness/knee), A. Robinson (knee), Balogun (ankle).
Suspended: None.
MORE: Full schedule, results, highlights, recaps for all USMNT games in 2025
The Guatemala attack is led by former USA international Rubio Rubin who switched to represent Guatemala in 2022 after none of his seven USMNT senior appearances cap-tied him to his country of birth.
They have two players who feature prominently at MLS clubs. Goalkeeper Nicolas Hagen backs up American starter Patrick Schulte at the Columbus Crew while right-back Aaron Herrera plays for D.C. United.
Head coach Luis Fernando Tena decided not to call in veterans Alejandro Galindo or Carlos Mejia, both of whom have over 50 international caps but are now 33 years old.
- Guatemala starting XI (5-3-2, right to left): Navarro (GK) — Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales — Robles, Rosales, Munoz — Escobar, Rubin, Santis.
Injured: None.
Suspended: None.
How to watch USA vs. Guatemala in Concacaf Gold Cup action
- Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025
- Venue: Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri
- Time: 12:00 a.m. BST
- TV/Streaming: Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports 2
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