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State of Origin 2025 expert betting tips, predictions, preview and odds for Queensland vs. New South Wales rugby league series

Contributor
Joshua Mayne
Contributor
Mark Molyneux
State of Origin 2025 expert betting tips, predictions, preview and odds for Queensland vs. New South Wales rugby league series image

It's Origin time Down Under.

Queensland will host New South Wales in this year's opener to the annual rugby league showdown in Australia at a jam-packed Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night local time (Wednesday morning U.K. time).

Can the Maroons make home advantage count as they look to win back the shield? Or will the Blues, under the guidance of new coach Laurie Daley, get the job done?

Here's our expert guide from The Sporting News' team Down Under to all the best bets, tips and predictions for State of Origin Game I.

Odds are correct at time of publish, but subject to change as we get closer to kick off.

Paddy Power

State of Origin 2025 expert betting tips, predictions, preview and odds for Game 1

Dearden to spark narrow Maroons win — Joshua Mayne

According to Paddy Power, we could be in for a cagey affair — with Under 40.5 points total coming in at just 8/11 with the firm. 

If we do have a tight, physical affair, the bench players could be the difference in this one.

While NSW's interchange is arguably stronger overall, Tom Dearden has the potential to be a game-changer for Queensland.

The exciting playmaker loves breaking matches open and has the speed and creativity required to take advantage of a tired defence.

Ben Hunt has previously thrived in a similar utility role, so keep an eye out for Dearden in Brisbane. 

BEST BET: Under 41.5 points (8/11)

VALUE BET: Tom Dearden anytime tryscorer (17/2)

BET BUILDER: Queensland 1-12 / Under 41.5 points / Xavier Coates anytime tryscorer (12.29/1)

Queensland to get off to a quick start in opener - Mark Molyneux

Queensland will have revenge firmly on their minds after being stunned 14-4 in Game III at Suncorp last year. 

The loss was the first time the Maroons were beaten on home soil in a decider since 2005 as NSW landed a major blow on their rivals. 

Billy Slater has responded by bringing in several fresh faces, and the coach will be drilling into his side the importance of getting off to a strong start this year with trips to Perth and Sydney on the horizon. 

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was at the heart of everything in attack for QLD in 2024, with the Dolphins flyer crossing for a hat-trick in Game I, while also bagging a four-pointer in Game II. 

With Kalyn Ponga stationed in the No.1 jersey for the first time since the 2022 decider, there could be plenty of space on the edge for the 'Hammer' to exploit. 

BEST BET: Queensland to score first (11/10)

LONG-SHOT BET: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow first tryscorer (10/1)

BET BUILDER: Latrell Mitchell anytime tryscorer / Over 40.5 points (3.76/1)

Click here to back your bets on State of Origin 2025 with Paddy Power and get £30 free bet for a £5 stake (T&Cs apply

How to Watch State of Origin 2025 in U.K.

  • Fixture: Queensland vs. New South Wales
  • Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
  • Date: Wednesday, May 28
  • Time: 11:05 BST
  •  TV/Streaming: Sky Sports / Sky Sports Go & Now TV