The maths are simple: if Real Madrid don't win at the Santiago Bernabeu against Real Mallorca on Wednesday night, Barcelona will be the 2025 La Liga champions without even kicking a ball.
After their tough defeat in El Clasico at Montjuic, Real need a miracle to avoid finishing the season without a title, and in Matchday 36 they will host a Mallorca team dreaming of playing in European competition next term.
Leading 2-0 at the weekend against Barca, Carlo Ancelotti's team were on course to get within a point of their arch-rivals and extend the fight until the end of the season for the championship crown. But in just a few short minutes, Eric Garcia, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha dashed Real Madrid's hopes, leaving them seven points behind with nine at stake.
In addition to doing their own job, they now need Barca to take just a single point until the end of the season (in the event of a tie at the top, Hansi Flick's team also has the advantage due to the better goal difference in head-to-head matches), which seems like a pipe dream.
Mallorca, for their part, are preparing to play the final three matches hoping to make history. For now, they start this matchday just one point outside of the UEFA Conference League spot and three out of the Europa League zone.
Their last victory against Valladolid (2-1) allowed the Bermellones to end a three-match winless streak, and they will arrive in full swing at the Santiago Bernabeu, a venue where they have struggled recently.
The sportsbooks can only see one outcome here, with Real Madrid the overwhelming favourite with odds of 5/14 (betway). A Mallorca away win rises to 7/1 with the same firm, while a draw is 17/4.
The Sporting News has our predictions and betting tips for what could be a pivotal night in the La Liga title race.
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Real Madrid vs. Real Mallorca odds, betting tips and predictions
Mallorca to win or draw: (23/10, AK Bets)
Due to their position in the table, their star-studded squad, and even their financial resources, Real Madrid are the superior team. However, despite being the clear favourite, AK Bets offers a pick that highlights that Mallorca could take something from the Spanish capital. The reasons? Real Madrid arrive battered by the defeat against Barcelona, which left them practically without any chance of being champions, and their last defeat at home was against the modest Valencia (10th). The decline of Carlo Ancelotti's team, the pressure to win to prevent the Catalans from becoming champions without playing, and the enormous expectations of the Bermellones to compete in Europe increase the chances of an upset.
Both teams to score: (10/11, betway)
As previously mentioned, given the objectives of each side, the only result that matters is a win, and that suggests a thrilling match. As for Real Madrid, they have scored at least once in their last eight La Liga matches and in their last home game, they netted three times against Celta Vigo. Mallorca, meanwhile, must get as many points as possible in the final stretch and will look to take advantage of the defensive errors of an opponent who has conceded nine goals in their last three outings.
Real Madrid vs. Real Mallorca predicted results, odds
Here's, a rundown of the most likely outcomes for Real Madrid vs. Real Mallorca according to Spreadex.
| Result | Odds* |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 2-0 | 6/1 |
| Real Madrid 2-1 | 7/1 |
| Real Madrid 1-0 | 7/1 |
| Real Madrid 3-0 | 8/1 |
| Draw 1-1 | 17/2 |
| Real Madrid 3-1 | 9/1 |
* All odds correct at time of publishing
Real Madrid vs. Real Mallorca match facts
- Date: Wednesday, May 14, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. BST
- Location: Santiago Bernabeu
- Referee: Javier Alberola
- Last meeting: Real Madrid 3-0 Real Mallorca (Spanish Super Cup, January 9, 2025)