After a seven-month wait, the NFL returns with Week 1 of the 2017 season.
Of course, there have been numerous offseason moves, and these play significantly into AccuScore’s 2017 NFL postseason forecast. Every week, AccuScore simulates the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times and predicts win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs.
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Ahead of Week 1, we take a look at AccuScore’s probabilities for each team to make the playoffs and place those odds next to Westgate's LV SuperBook odds.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
| Team | AccuScore | Westgate | Diff |
| New England Patriots | 99% | 96% | 3% |
| Green Bay Packers | 97% | 77% | 20% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 92% | 83% | 9% |
| Denver Broncos | 84% | 32% | 51% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 79% | 67% | 12% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 71% | 78% | -7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 70% | 56% | 13% |
| New York Giants | 66% | 45% | 20% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 60% | 47% | 13% |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 58% | 32% | 26% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 46% | 60% | -14% |
| Oakland Raiders | 46% | 57% | -11% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 44% | 42% | 2% |
| Tennessee Titans | 40% | 48% | -7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 37% | 40% | -3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 36% | 33% | 2% |
| New Orleans Saints | 36% | 30% | 6% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 33% | 37% | -4% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 25% | 22% | 2% |
| Carolina Panthers | 22% | 52% | -30% |
| Houston Texans | 16% | 41% | -25% |
| Washington Redskins | 12% | 25% | -13% |
| Detroit Lions | 9% | 26% | -17% |
| Buffalo Bills | 6% | 15% | -10% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5% | 38% | -33% |
| L.A. Rams | 5% | 10% | -5% |
| Miami Dolphins | 3% | 22% | -19% |
| L.A. Chargers | 2% | 31% | -29% |
| Chicago Bears | 1% | 9% | -8% |
| Cleveland Browns | 1% | 5% | -4% |
| New York Jets | 1% | 5% | -4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1% | 7% | -6% |
NFL playoff odds: AccuScore vs. Vegas
Value bets to make the playoffs:
- Denver Broncos: After the Broncos picked their starting QB, their chances to make the playoffs increased from 50-50 to winning the AFC West outright. Their defense is still world class and a 4-0 preseason showed that the Broncos have depth.
- Green Bay Packers: If the Packers pick up where they left off last season, there are few doubts that they'll end up in the postseason. AccuScore believes in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, putting Green Bay at 12 wins for 2017.
- New York Giants: Another playoff team from last season that AccuScore's computer likes. Even though the NFC East has been tough to predict in recent years, the Cowboys and Giants are clearly above the Redskins and Eagles based on AccuScore's simulations.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The NFC South is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. Two Super Bowl teams from the last two years sit in the division, which points to the competitive quality on display. Season predictions show win totals for all four teams between 8-9, according to AccuScore, but Tampa Bay is on top of that pile and has the best odds to reach the playoffs.
Poor bets to make the playoffs:
- Carolina Panthers: As mentioned above, the NFC South projects to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Based on simulations, the Panthers pull the short straw at the end of the season, carrying the Super Bowl 50 hangover into another rough year.
- Houston Texans: Another division completely up in the air is the AFC South. Houston’s good defense doesn't do enough to push the Texans into the playoffs this season. However, we all remember what happened to the Saints after Hurricane Katrina. For the Texans, Hurricane Harvey could galvanize the city behind the team and beat all odds. Of course, the simulations cannot take into account a team's response to a natural disaster.
- Philadelphia Eagles: The Cowboys and Giants were in the playoffs a year ago; the Eagles were not. Philadelphia didn't do enough to plug the gaps for 2017. In particular, AccuScore projects the Eagles to have a bottom-five defense.
- L.A. Chargers: The Chargers have the toughest division in the NFL, a rookie head coach, a new city and no notable changes to the roster that finished 5-11 last year.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.