The College Football Playoff has until Dec. 1 to make a decision whether to expand the field for the 2026-27 season.
ACC commissioner Jim Phillips and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark have voiced support for the 5-11 model, which would give five conference champions an automatic berth with 11 at-large teams.
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is stumping for a strength-of-schedule component in that 16-team model, and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti favors an AQ model that would assign multiple automatic bids for conferences and include play-in games on Championship Weekend. In that scenario, the SEC and Big Ten would get four automatic berths apiece.
Will those commissioners be able to come to a decision that benefits college football before Dec. 1?
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"I know they can," College Football Playoff executive director Rich Clark told Sporting News. "They are a very collaborative group and a lot of people will say, 'Well they can't make a decision.' What they don't know is that it is a group of professionals who make decisions almost weekly for college football and college athletics in general.
"This is a big decision," Clark said. "I know they are going to come to a decision whether it's to stay where we are, or whether it's to go to an AQ model or a 5-11 model."
Clark addressed several CFP questions in an interview with Sporting News. He even mentioned a 5-9 model – which would put five conference champions and nine at-large teams in the College Football Playoff.
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Rich Clark on straight seeding and the 12-team model
On May 22, the CFP announced a change in the seeding procedures for the 2025-26 season. The top-five highest ranked conference champions make the CFP – but they are not guaranteed first-round byes. The 12 teams will be seeded based on their final ranking by the CFP selection committee. This comes a year after the four highest-ranked conference champions were given automatic byes in the 2024-25 playoff.
Last year, first-round games were decided by an average of 19.3 points per game. Clark was in attendance for the Ohio State-Tennessee matchup in the first round. The Buckeyes were seeded No. 8 despite a No. 6 ranking in the final CFP rankings. Ohio State beat Tennessee – which was seeded No. 9 but ranked No. 7 – in a 45-17 blowout. The new tweak fixes that problem.
Will that seeding adjustment lead to closer first-round games? Clark is optimistic that could be the case, which would lead to more support for the 12-team model in Year 2.
"It may – and I think that going to the straight seeding really puts us into a position where we are rewarding the teams for their performance in the regular season – so those top four teams will get the bye," Clark said. "Then, we'll seed everybody else according to their ranking, so you put teams in a position now where they are playing teams that are maybe more evenly matched. Then, you are letting the best teams progress."
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Rich Clark on strength of schedule and moving CFP schedule
The College Football Playoff also is looking to enhance the way it measures strength of schedule. Clark said the CFP brought in SportsSource Analytics, experts from Google and a university professor in mathematics to help quantify a team’s strength of schedule. The data changed dramatically in 2024 because of the realigned Power 4 conferences. For example, Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC now instead of the Big 12. That changes that data.
Clark still values the human element of the committee.
"Those are things our selection committee has to look at, injuries, where you're playing, what the weather conditions were like, how close the games were – there are so many things that data or a computer just can't tell you, but that's why they have human beings on it," Clark said. "It's a human event."
Clark also said the CFP is not planning on compressing the playoff schedule at this time. The first 12-team playoff started on Dec. 20, 2024. and ended on Jan. 20, 2025 – one day after the NFL divisional playoff round. This year, the CFP first-round triple-header on Saturday, Dec. 20, is up against a NFL doubleheader that includes Green Bay at Chicago and Philadelphia at Washington.
There also will continue to be a two-week gap between the conference championship and first round. That accounts for finals, commencements and other on-campus events, which are not a factor in the NFL schedule process.
"I will say that we work with the NFL, and we have some really good discussions with them to try to de-conflict as best we can," Clark said. "A compression of the schedule right now is not something that we are looking at, but we are cognizant that the NFL is playing on those weekends, too. We have to do our best to de-conflict and make sure that our fans are able to choose wisely in what they are able to take in."
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Richard Clark on CFP expansion ahead of Dec. 1 deadline
Will the College Football Playoff expand before 2026? Clark said the commissioners are working toward a solution. There is a considerable gap between the SEC and Big Ten in those negotiations now – especially when it comes to the strength of schedule components and the AQ models that have been presented. The SEC and ACC play eight conference games. The Big Ten and Big 12 play nine conference games. That is another issue in those discussions, but Clark still sees a collaborative effort among the Power 4 conferences.
"I think the commissioners really want to get to a format that we can establish and have for the foreseeable future,” Clark said. “I would say tweak this playoff to make it what it's going to be, and there are a lot of factors in that decision whether it's 12, 14 or 16."
In the short term, the tweaked 12-team model with straight seeding will be the answer. If a decision is not reached before Dec, 1, then that model will be put to the test this year. Clark is willing to give that a chance.
"They are weighing all those factors, and frankly their decision might be to keep it the same," Clark said. "They are going to want to take a hard look at it. They have seen it for one year. They have seen some of the pros and cons of the numbers, and they want to get to a good decision for us for the next several years anyway."