The Boston Red Sox have a logjam in the outfield. It's about to get even worse when Masataka Yoshida makes his return from the injured list. The team will essentially be forced to make a trade.
Between Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Yoshida, Duran and Abreu are the only candidates to be dealt. Rafaela is signed to a long-term extension, Yoshida's contract will be difficult to trade and trading Anthony, the top prospect in baseball, is out of the question.
Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly predicted that the Red Sox would trade either Duran or Abreu this offseason, essentially changing the course of the future of their outfield.
"If the Red Sox hold onto Duran—who can't become a free agent until after 2028—Abreu would also net them something really good in return, assuming he gets healthy," wrote Kelly. "The 25-year-old has a .795 OPS and 24 defensive runs saved in right field in parts of three MLB seasons. He won't even become arbitration-eligible until 2027. The Red Sox don't have to trade anyone, but with so much position-playing talent, flipping one of their surplus of star outfielders might be the best move for the franchise. From here, Duran seems the most likely to be dealt."
Last season, Duran was an All-Star and Abreu was a Gold Glove Award winner as a rookie. From a business standpoint, trading Duran makes the most sense. His value is at a high, and he has less club control. However, he is a better offensive player than Abreu.
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Abreu hit .253 with a .781 OPS last year. He had a .245 average with a .792 OPS in 64 games this year. He had 13 home runs, just two shy of his season total last year. Abreu has more room to grow at the plate, but there is questions on whether Duran can ever replicate his All-Star campaign from a year ago.
"What the Red Sox—and any potential suitors—will have to decide is whether they think he can ever replicate the 6.7 WAR he posted last year, or if he's more of a three- or four-win player who had one superstar season," wrote Kelly. "The 2024 version of Duran is the type of player who is untouchable. But his value right now might be at its peak because he hasn't yet conclusively proved last year was an outlier, although he isn't performing at that same level overall again."
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