Pre-season, the only thing most NRL experts were tipping the Canberra Raiders to win was the wooden spoon.
The smart money agreed, with bookmakers offering as much as $67 for them to lift the 2025 Telstra Premiership back in February.
Fast forward to the end of Round 15, however, and those odds are now looking serious overs with the Green Machine currently sitting second on the NRL table with 11 wins and just three losses—catapulting them to the third line of premiership betting at just $8 with Sportsbet.
Making things even more impressive, Ricky Stuart’s squad played every weekend of the opening 14 rounds, with their first bye only coming in Round 15.
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“We are going into a bye after the next game and we really need it,” Stuart revealed in his post-match press conference after the Raiders hung on to beat a fast-finishing Roosters, 26-24, in Round 13.
“What we’ve had to endure… physically, travel … we’re just hanging on for the break.”
With more than half the season now complete, the Raiders’ lofty ladder position has caught of eye of plenty of experts, with Matty Johns suggesting that Stuart—a premiership winner with the Roosters in his first season of NRL coaching in 2002—is on track to deliver his finest ever moment in coaching.
“It’s my opinion that this is Stuart’s finest coaching season,” Johns said on CODE Sports.
“Like the young Raiders team that he enjoyed dominance with as a player, they’ve recognised the changes in the game and exactly the kind of football they need to play to beat the best.”
Who’s up? Who’s down?
As steep as the Raiders’ rise has been in 2025, they aren’t the only NRL surprise packets. The New Zealand Warriors started the season friendless at $51—a price that still seemed short following their Round 1 thrashing at the hands of the Raiders in Las Vegas—but have since turned things around brilliantly, shortening into $10 off the back of the career-best form of halfback, Luke Metcalf.
The table-topping Bulldogs have been another big mover in the first half of 2025, paying as much as $17 back in February, but now just $4.20, behind only the Melbourne Storm.
On the flip side, there have been some big name disappointments. Four-time premiers Penrith have slipped from $4.80 to $18 as they try to overcome their worst start to a season in 12 years, with many questioning if the dream of a ‘five-peat’ is simply a bridge too far.
The inconsistent Broncos—labelled “Jekyll & Hyde” by their coach, Michael Maguire following a Round 11 fadeout against the Dragons—have dropped from $8.50 to $19. Whilst Sydney heavyweights, the Roosters and Souths, have also fallen off premiership cliffs, plunging from $20 at the start of the season to $46 and $101 respectively.
With 12 rounds left in the race for the finals, there’s still plenty of time for late season ladder shakeups—and, of course, favourites don’t always win.
| Team/Odds | Pre-season | Round 15 |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Storm | $3.85 | $2.70 |
| Canterbury Bulldogs | $17 | $4.20 |
| Canberra Raiders | $67 | $8 |
| NZ Warriors | $51 | $10 |
| Cronulla Sharks | $13 | $15 |
| Penrith Panthers | $4.80 | $18 |
| Brisbane Broncos | $8.50 | $19 |
| Dolphins | $61 | $26 |
| Manly Sea Eagles | $15 | $41 |
| Sydney Roosters | $20 | $46 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | $26 | $91 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | $20 | $101 |
| St George Illawarra Dragons | $61 | $151 |
| Parramatta Eels | $41 | $201 |
| Wests Tigers | $46 | $226 |
| Newcastle Knights | $61 | $276 |
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Prices based on Sportsbet NRL premiership betting as of Monday 16 June 2025.