Targeting matchups for POD plays, sit start decisions, value options that can overdeliver, or for your VC or C decisions is part and parcel of NRL SuperCoach.
Sometimes it works out perfectly, other times not so much — as we saw last week with the Sharks barely getting past an understrength Rabbitohs side and in the process seeing one of the most popular captaincy options in Nicho Hynes only register 51 points.
Nonetheless, it is an important factor to consider and at this point of the season, when some teams really need to focus on week-to-week, it becomes even more important.
Strategically, if you have a mountain of trades you are at a huge advantage now — you can afford to trade each week based on matchups.
If you do not have the trades to sacrifice, the matchups are still critical to decide who to start or sit in your squad, as well as the ever-important VC and C decisions.
Round 22 gives us a number of tantalising matchups for SuperCoach that could produce the goods, but certainly this part of SuperCoach — and indeed this article — is going to be relevant every week going forward too.
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Titans v Panthers: The Hunt Game
This is a gold-class matchup and despite the Titans’ excellent win over the Warriors last week, they remain a team to 'hunt' week to week. They will give up points, particularly to teams with the firepower to take advantage — like the Panthers.
If you don’t have Nathan Cleary, he is more than a must this week and Dylan Edwards frankly, isn’t far behind.
That being said, assuming most have those players, there are a few value options that could step up this week.
Brian To’o | $515,800 | CTW | 4% ownership
To’o is having a year to forget, averaging only 59 points per game and having only scored 1 try since Round 3.
What that means, however, is he’s tremendous value and absolutely primed for a throwback performance against a Titans side that specialises in letting wingers cross for tries.
Strangely enough, in the last four years To’o has only played the Titans once — for 84 SuperCoach points.
With how the Titans are conceding points out wide, coupled with a calculated presumption that To’o will return to form, at 4% ownership it could be an invaluable big CTW score this week.
Blaize Talagi | $493,700 | 5/8 CTW | 4% ownership
Blaize has had an indifferent start to his Panthers career with flashes of form — like his 112 points in Round 10 — showing his upside when the Panthers attack is humming.
He has, however, shown a decent floor with only 3 of his 14 appearances resulting in a score under 50.
That’s not a reason to trade him in, however, and there is certainly risk, but as a one-week POD priced under $500k there is value there.
The potential for Talagi to find some attacking stats looks high this week, especially if the Panthers can replicate the 36-point outing in Round 21.
Disappointing Guns Primed to Fire
This week presents a few matchups for some key guns that have been underwhelming of late, and history suggests they could be in for a big round.
Nicho Hynes | $732,500 | HB | 30% ownership
Hynes’ 51-point outing last week against the Rabbitohs was more than disappointing — as one of the top captaincy options in Supercoach, coaches will be ready to put a line through his name for any armbands this week.
Based on his history, some astute coaches who may need to change up their C and VC choices to chase points could be rewarded.
Hynes is back at home where he not only loves to play but against an opposition that is amongst his favourite adversaries.
With a career average of 90 points v the Cowboys — including a 142 high — they are his second favourite team to play historically for Supercoach.
He has already scored 86 points against them away this season, with his last home game against the Cowboys yielding 126 points — which he backed up with another tonne of 108 the same season.
In a Sharks jersey, Hynes has averaged 100 points per game against the Cowboys, who just happened to have conceded 32 and 43 points in their matches the last two rounds as well and looks to be conceding enough tries for the Sharks to capitalise.
There is definite risk with Hynes’ slightly inconsistent year, but also opportunity if you need to chase and change your captaincy to have any chance of a late surge to a H2H win.
James Tedesco | $698,400 | FB | 41% ownership
What we can say about James Tedesco at the moment can almost mirror Hynes above — underwhelming for a couple of weeks now.
Like Hynes, however, that presents huge opportunity with many Supercoaches losing faith, at least as far as risking a VC or C is concerned.
Playing away is not ideal, and Manly will be desperate to beat the Roosters as well, but there are some tantalising matchup numbers buried in this one. Put simply: Teddy loves playing the Sea Eagles. Loves it.
His last two scores against them are 103 and 126, and he achieved one of his highest career Supercoach scores a few seasons back against them — a humongous 162.
In his last five seasons against Manly, Teddy averages 99 points with a high of 162 and nothing lower than 71 with an impressive statistical history on his side this week.
Whilst defensively Manly has been quite good, the floodgates opened last week with the Bulldogs scoring 42 — and it looked like it could’ve easily been more. If Manly’s defence is similar to last week, regardless of who wins the match, Teddy could be primed for a bounceback in a big way.
Reece Walsh | $643,000 | FB | 8% ownership
Speaking about disappointing fullbacks of late, Walsh has been disappointing all year with a 65 average — nowhere near his 75 and 80 average seasons of the past two years.
That means though his ownership is only at 8%, playing at home against a South Sydney side struggling to field a first-grade team.
Whilst they were valiant against the Sharks in Round 21, it seemed more about the quality of the game and indeed the Sharks, that prevented more points being put on the luckless Rabbitohs.
Playing at Suncorp, with captain Jack Wighton now ruled out as well through suspension, the Rabbitohs will be hard pressed to stop the floodgates opening this week against the Broncos who themselves need to bounce back from a poor round 21.
There are no great numbers to put confidence in a Walsh trade in other than the opposition and the probability he has to have a big game soon — he has not scored a single tonne this season yet and statistically, that is very highly likely to come.
If you believe the Rabbitohs will capitulate this week, then it stands to make sense Walsh could be the biggest Supercoach beneficiary of the matchup and potentially run riot, and all at the lowly ownership of 8%.
The 'Vibe' Matchups
Sometimes in rugby league it’s all about narratives and fairytales coming to fruition, and boy do we have a couple of those this week that look interesting.
Lachlan Galvin | $485,700 | 5/8 | 6% ownership
Coming off a stellar display where the Bulldogs attack looked as good as it ever has, they come up against a Tigers side that capitulated against the Panthers last week and conceded 30 points per game to their opposition over the last month.
That alone is enough to wonder if the Bulldogs can put on a similar attacking display as Round 21, but the most intriguing factor is... it’s Lachlan Galvin’s first game against his old club.
After a highly publicised, unceremonious exit from the Tigers, there is no doubt both sides will be aware of the emotions at play regarding Galvin. There is every chance the Tigers take that as motivation and stand up, but also every chance the emotions can get the better of them too.
Galvin has scored 86 and 64 points since being handed the Bulldogs number 7 jumper a fortnight ago and at his price and ownership already presents tremendous value at his price point.
So often we see rugby league produce fairytale narratives and this one just has the 'vibe' that it is destined to be the case again, highlighted by a Galvin try.
That can be golden for Supercoach as well with Galvin producing scores of 86 and 101 in his only two games this year he scored a try as a starting half.
Kaeo Weekes | $704,200 | FB/5/8 | 18% ownership
Unlike some of the options above, Weekes not only presents an interesting play for big points potential this week, but also presents a hugely POD captaincy option.
Weekes is coming up against a Dragons side that now has a worryingly large injury toll to contend with and along with that the Dragons have also given up almost 30 points per game over the last month of footy.
The biggest factor with Weekes though is just three games ago he played the Dragons and produced one of the Supercoach performances of the season with an irresistible 156 points — and it could’ve been even more.
Whilst Weekes is on a good run with a three-round average of 90 and five-round average of 84 along with three tonnes in the season so far, it’s just got that feeling that history could repeat itself this week.
The only saving grace for the Dragons is the match will be played at WIN Stadium, but with both Couchman and Su'a ruled out for the year, among other injuries, this smells like a game the Raiders backs could run rampant after the forwards dominate the middle.
If that happens, a 100+ score again from Weekes looks highly likely and he will be a player next to no one will be brave enough to Captain.
If you’re worried about your H2H matchup in a must-win week or you are needing some POD moves for overall glory, a VC on Cleary backed up by a hail-mary C on Weekes could pay dividends — just understand the risk.
Final Word
Targeting matchups each week is so important in Supercoach, but your expectations also need to be in check.
If you're going to go for a riskier play or captaincy option, be as prepared to reap the downside as you are the rewards if it does come off.
This round — and indeed future rounds — do present a lot of calculated opportunities though, with some very juicy matchups ahead.
At this time of year, taking advantage of the best individual or team matchups can be the difference between finals and overall glory — or an early end to your season.