It's the business end of World Cup qualifying — at least for one nation — as Australia host Japan in an AFC qualifier at Perth Stadium on Thursday.
While Japan were the first country to officially join co-hosts USA, Canada and Mexico in the 2026 World Cup when they qualified in March, the Socceroos will be looking to sew up qualification in their final two matches.
But it won't be easy, as they face their group’s hardest two opponents — and arguably Asia's toughest — with a Saudi Arabia road trip coming next week also.
However, the situation of each nation does present an interesting dynamic in the match, with Australia desperately needing points, while the match is effectively a dead rubber for the Japanese.
Don't expect Japan to roll over and allow an easy victory for Tony Popovic's side, but coach Hajime Moriyasu has picked an experimental squad allowing several of his European-based stars a break from football.
Japan will be missing the likes of Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma, Leeds' Ao Tanaka, Monaco's Takumi Minamino and Freiburg's Ritsu Doan — with only 13 players from their March squad being selected in this list of players.
There is no doubt that Australia's motivation levels compared to Japan, and the impact of the missing players from the travelling nation's squad, definitely swing the initial balance of the match in favour of the Socceroos.
The Sporting News presents our predictions and tips to help you bet and make the match even more exciting.
Australia vs. Japan prediction, tips, bet builder and odds for AFC Asian World Cup qualifier
Odds are correct at time of publish with firms listed but subject to change as we get closer to kick-off.
Under 2.5 total goals in the match — 1.58 (Sportsbet)
Australia have a poor record against Japan in recent times, winning only twice against the Blue Samurai since 2006, with one of those victories famously coming in the World Cup of that year.
Of the 14 matches played between the nations across the last 19 years, Japan has won six, with six matches also drawn, and Australia's last victory came in 2009.
But the dynamic of the dead rubber for Japan and ultimate motivation for Australia means the home side are favoured to get the win here at 2.70, with the away side at 2.80 and a draw at 2.90.
Incredibly, Japan have only conceded two goals across their eight World Cup qualifiers in this stage, and while Australia have scored 13 goals in their eight contests, eight of those strikes have come in two routs against Indonesia and China.
With Japan's weakened team and Australia's pragmatic style of play, it's hard to see a lot of goals being scored in this match, with under 2.5 goals looking like an absolute steal with what is at stake in the match.
Stay away from a lot of player markets until both XI's are officially selected, with much uncertainty about who will feature for each nation.
Australia vs. Japan predicted score and most likely results
Here are the most likely results for this AFC Asian World Cup qualifier, according to Sportsbet.
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Draw 1-1 | 5.50 |
| Australia win 1-0 | 7.00 |
| Draw 0-0 | 7.00 |
| Japan win 1-0 | 8.00 |
| Australia win 2-1 | 10.00 |
| Japan win 2-1 | 10.00 |
| Australia win 2-0 | 10.00 |
Australia vs. Japan: Match facts & How to watch
- Date: Thursday, June 5
- Time: 9:10 p.m AEST
- Venue: Perth Stadium
- TV/Streaming: Channel 10/Paramount+